000 AXNT20 KNHC 181006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Oct 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America and southern Mexico Significant Rainfall and developing low pressure in the Western Caribbean: A 1005 mb low pressure is centered near 17N83W, off the coast of eastern Honduras. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next couple of days before it moves inland over Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend. This system could bring significant rainfall to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the southeastern Mexico Friday through Monday next week, increasing the chance for flooding and landslides. Residents in these countries need to monitor this developing situation closely and listen to the latest forecast from their local meteorological agencies. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 19N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a western Atlantic and eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 62W from 22N southward through a 1012 mb low (Invest AL94) near 18N62W, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 58W and 63W. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west- northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near or just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 7 days. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W/84W from 1005 mb low pressure (Invest AL95) near 17N83W southward through eastern Honduras and Nicaragua and central Costa Rica into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 21N between 75W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Atlantic coast at the Guinea/Sierra Leone border to 03N35W. The ITCZ continues from 03N35W to 03N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 08N to 13N between 17W and 35W, and from 06N to 14N between 47W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from central Cuba across the Yucatan Channel and the northern Yucatan Peninsula, the westward across the Bay of Campeche to just south of Veracruz, Mexico. Recent scatterometer satellite and buoy data indicate fresh to strong NE winds across much of the Gulf. Combined seas are estimated to be 7 to 11 ft. No significant shower or thunderstorms are noted at this time across the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas will continue to affect much of the basin through Sun as strong high pressure builds over the SE United States behind a cold front that moved through the basin earlier this afternoon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish early next week as the high pressure weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall into early next week and the possible development of low pressure off Honduras. Aside from the area of low pressure and associated convection over the western Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds generally prevail across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for 7-8 ft in the Yucatan Channel as northerly swell generated in the wake of a frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico is spreading into the northwest Caribbean waters. For the forecast, low pressure centered off eastern Honduras is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next couple of days. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Sat. Farther north, fresh to strong winds and rough seas follow a stationary front over the Yucatan Channel. This front will dissipate through today ahead of the developing low pressure. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds, rough seas and scattered thunderstorms accompany a trough moving westward to the north of the Leeward Islands this morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the basin early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N67W SW to central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft prevail west of the front. Fresh winds and seas of 7-9 ft accompany a trough (Invest AL94) to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 8-10 ft seas are noted off northwest Africa. Moderate easterly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the mostly stationary front will move little today, then dissipate through Sat night into Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will continue to affect the waters W of the front into early next week when conditions will start to improve. Farther south, fresh winds and 8 to 10 ft swell accompany a trough moving westward to the north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands today. Winds and seas will diminish tonight into Sat as the trough moves to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and toward the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from the early to middle part of next week across the region. $$ Christensen