000 AXNT20 KNHC 182353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Oct 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen is centered near 17.5N 85.7W at 19/0000 UTC or 145 nm E of Belize City, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the NW Caribbean and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. The system is moving toward the west-northwest. A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday while the system approaches the coast. Some slow strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm before making landfall tomorrow. Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fifteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 27W from 19N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis. A second tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 65W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is near the northern end of the wave axis N of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (AL94). A third tropical wave over the NW Caribbean is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends westward to 11N22W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from 10N31W to 07N40W to 07N53W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is affecting parts of Sierra Leone and Guinea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 15N between 20W and 30W, and from 07N to 12N between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from western Cuba across the Yucatan Channel and the northern Yucatan Peninsula, then westward across the Bay of Campeche to near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and in the vicinity of the front. Strong high pressure follows the front and extends a ridge across the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between high pressure and Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen in the NW Caribbean supports fresh to strong NE winds across much of the Gulf east of 90W, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Combined seas across the SE Gulf are estimated to be 8 to 11 ft, locally up to 13 ft near the NW coast of Cuba per recent altimeter data. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring over the western Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas will continue to affect much of the basin through Sun night as strong high pressure builds over the SE United States. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish early next week as the high pressure weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen is over the NW Caribbean. Please, read the Special Features section for more information. Aside from Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen over the western Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds generally prevail across the Caribbean waters, with the exception of light to gentle winds in the NE and SW parts of the basin. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, except for 8 to 10 ft in the NW Caribbean, mainly N of 19N and W of 82W, including the Yucatan Channel as northerly swell generated in the wake of a frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico is spreading into the northwest Caribbean waters. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move to 17.5N 86.2W Sat morning, 17.3N 88.3W Sat afternoon, then inland inland to 17.2N 90.9W Sun morning. The low pressure will dissipate Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, a stationary front just north of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen has fresh to strong winds and rough seas to the north of it over the Yucatan Channel. This front will dissipate tonight but the associated hazardous marine conditions will prevail into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N66W and extends SW to western Cuba into the Yucatan Channel. Strong high pressure centered over the eastern of the United States is in the wake of the front generating fresh to strong winds over the western Atlantic with seas of 8 to 10 ft NE of the Bahamas. Some shower activity is along the frontal boundary. Farther E, the most recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a trough of low pressure (AL94) continues to produce showers and thunderstorms extending a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west- northwestward at around 20 mph, continuing north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds by early next week. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted in association with this system. A shearline is analyzed south of the Canary Islands and runs from 27N13W to 23N30W and then to 25N55W. High pressure of 1027 mb located NW of the Madeira Islands near 34N19W is behind the shearline and dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted across most of the east and central Atlantic. Seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate the waters from 20N to 25N E of 25W to the W coast of Africa where fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the nearly stationary front from Bermuda to western Cuba will remain generally in place through the weekend, then dissipate. NW of this boundary, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail through early next week. Farther south, a low pressure trough,invest AL94, currently just N of Puerto Rico, will move quickly W and bring fresh winds and rough seas to waters N of Puerto Rico tonight and Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands Sat and Sat night. There is a low chance of tropical formation with this trough during that time. $$ GR