000 AXNT20 KNHC 190551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0551 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Nadine is centered near 17.3N 86.4W at 19/0600 UTC or 105 nm E of Belize City, moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the NW Caribbean and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move inland along the coast of Belize later today. Some additional slight strengthening is possible before Nadine makes landfall later today. Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fifteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 28W from 19N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis. A second tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 67W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is near the northern end of the wave axis N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (AL94). A third tropical wave over the NW Caribbean is now Tropical Storm Nadine. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends westward to 09.5N23W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from 12N32W to 07N43W to 07N55W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is affecting parts of Sierra Leone and Guinea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 12N between 30W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from western Cuba across the Yucatan Channel and the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and in the vicinity of the front. Strong high pressure follows the front and extends a ridge across the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between high pressure and Tropical Storm Nadine in the NW Caribbean supports fresh to strong NE winds across much of the Gulf east of 90W, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Combined seas across the SE Gulf are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring over the western Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas will continue to affect much of the basin through Sun night as strong high pressure builds over the SE United States. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through early next week as the high pressure weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Nadine is over the NW Caribbean. Please, read the Special Features section for more information. Aside from Tropical Storm Nadine over the western Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds generally prevail across the Caribbean waters, with the exception of light to gentle winds in the NE and SW parts of the basin. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, except for 8 to 11 ft in the NW Caribbean, mainly N of 18.5N and W of 83W, including the Yucatan Channel as northerly swell generated in the wake of a frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico is spreading into the northwest Caribbean waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nadine is near 17.3N 86.4W at 2 AM EDT, and is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Nadine will move to 17.5N 87.5W Sat morning, then move inland to 17.3N 90.0W Sat evening, before dissipating Sun morning. Elsewhere, a stationary front just north of Tropical Storm Nadine has fresh to strong winds and rough seas to the north of it over the Yucatan Channel. This front will dissipate overnight into Sat morning but the associated hazardous marine conditions will prevail into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N66W and extends SW to western Cuba into the Yucatan Channel. Strong high pressure centered over the eastern of the United States is in the wake of the front generating fresh to strong winds over the western Atlantic with seas of 8 to 11 ft NE of the Bahamas. Some shower activity is along the frontal boundary. Farther E, (AL94) continues to produce showers and thunderstorms extending a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west- northwestward at around 15 mph, continuing north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Sat and Sat night. Further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds by early next week. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted in association with this system. High pressure of 1026 mb near 34N20W is dominating the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted across most of the east and central Atlantic. Seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate the waters from 23N to 31N E of 22W to the W coast of Africa where fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a nearly stationary front from Bermuda to central Cuba will drift eastward as a cold front north of 25N through Sun, then weaken to a trough through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail west of the front through early next week. Farther south, a trough, Invest 94L, currently just N of Puerto Rico, will move quickly W and bring fresh winds and rough seas to waters N of Puerto Rico overnight and Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Sat and Sat night. There is a low chance of tropical formation with this trough during that time. $$ KRV