000 AXNT20 KNHC 191232 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nadine: Nadine is centered near 17.4N 87.1W at 19/0900 UTC or 70 nm E of Belize City, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is observed within 180 nm of the center. Seas are reaching 12 ft off the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Some additional slight strengthening is possible before Nadine makes landfall along the coast of Belize by late morning or early afternoon. Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. Invest 94L: Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized with a small area of low pressure located less than a couple hundred miles north of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. Satellite shows scattered moderate convection from 20N to 24N between 66W and 72W. In addition, recently received passive microwave imagery also suggests that a well-defined surface circulation could be developing. If these trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form later today as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. On this track, the system should pass north of Hispaniola today, and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and extreme eastern Cuba on Sunday. Interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the latest Nadine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, and the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 28W from 20N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis. A second tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 68W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is near the northern end of the wave axis north of Hispaniola, associated with Invest AL94. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and extends southwestward to 10N20W to 10N25W to 06N45W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 10N45W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 09N between 35W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds persist across most of the Gulf, south of strong high pressure building over the eastern United States, and north of a frontal boundary stalled to the southeast of the Gulf. The scatterometer data showed near-gale force winds across the Straits of Florida to off western Cuba. Combined seas are 8 to 12 ft, with the highest seas in the southeast Gulf where the aforementioned near-gale force winds wind are flowing against the Florida Current. A few shower and thunderstorms are active near the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas will continue to affect much of the basin through early Mon morning as strong high pressure builds over the southeast United States. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through early next week as the high pressure weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Nadine is over the northwest Caribbean. Please read the Special Features section for more information. The stationary front across the Yucatan Channel is starting to dissipate as the airmass modifies and as Tropical Storm Nadine develops farther to the south. Aside from Tropical Storm Nadine over the northwestern Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds generally prevail across the Caribbean waters, with the exception of light to gentle winds in the NE and SW parts of the basin. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range, except for 8 to 12 ft in the NW Caribbean, mainly west of 83W, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, Nadine will move inland to 17.2N 88.7W this afternoon, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.0N 91.3W Sun morning, before dissipating Sun afternoon. Lingering rough seas over the northwest Caribbean will subside through Mon, leaving gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mostly stationary front reaches from 31N63W to central Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas persist west of this boundary. Farther south, Invest AL94 persist as a sharp trough north of the Mona Passage. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is associated with this trough, from 21N to 23N between 67W and 70W, along with fresh to strong winds and rough seas. This trough has a low chance of further development into a tropical cyclone as it moves westward today at 15 to 20 kt. Elsewhere east of 35W, gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 22N, and moderate to fresh trades with 6 to 8 ft seas farther south into the tropical Atlantic. Farther east over the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the nearly stationary front from 31N63W to central Cuba will drift eastward as a cold front north of 25N through Sun, then weaken to a trough through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail west of the front through early next week. Farther south, a trough, Invest 94L, currently just north of the Mona Passage, will move quickly west and bring fresh winds and rough seas to waters north of Hispaniola and near the Turks and Caicos through tonight. There is a low chance of tropical formation with this trough during that time. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the basin by mid week. $$ Adams