000 AXNT20 KNHC 200553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Oct 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0553 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Compact and powerful Oscar is moving very near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Hurricane Oscar is centered near 21.3N 72.6W at 20/0600Z UTC or 35 ENE of Great Inagua Island, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted mainly on the W semicircle of the hurricane from 20N to 23N between 70W and 73W. Peak seas are around 15 ft. Oscar is moving toward the west near and turn to the west-southwest is forecast later today, and the center of Oscar is forecast to reach the coast of Cuba night. A turn toward the north and northeast is expected in a couple of days. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or so, but weakening is anticipated tonight and Monday after the center crosses the coast. Oscar is a very small hurricane. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across portions of the warning area in the Southeastern Bahamas overnight into early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across portions of the warning area in the Southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba this evening. Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. Oscar is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Tropical Depression Nadine near northern Guatemala. It is centered near 17.2N 90.6W at 20/0300UTC or 140 nm W of Belize City, moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over Belize, northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico through Sunday. Gradual weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the latest NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Oscar and Nadine at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 33W from 20N southward, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 05N to 08N and from 15N to 20N between 31W and 37W. A second tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis extends from Dominican Republic to western Venezuela. No significant convection is depicted at this time in reaction to this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends southwestward to 10N25W. The ITCZ runs from 10N25W to 09N30W and from 08N50W to 08N55W. Aside for the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 20W and 26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also depicted from 07N to 12N west of 18W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between tropical cyclone Nadine to the south and strong high pressure over the eastern United States supports fresh to strong NE to E winds across most of the Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are in general 6 to 9 ft, except 9 to 12 ft over the SE and central Gulf. While, seas of 8 to 11 feet prevail over the Straits of Florida. Outer bands, with embedded showers and thunderstorms, associated with the cyclonic circulation of Nadine are reaching the northern Yucatan Peninsula and regional waters and the central and eastern portions of Bay of Campeche and the central Gulf. For the forecast, T.D. Nadine will dissipate inland over northern Guatemala and southern Mexico through Sun, but may bring strong NE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will continue to affect much of the basin through Mon morning as strong high pressure builds over the southeast United States. Looking ahead, winds and seas will then diminish across the basin through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce convection across Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and the NW Caribbean. An outer band of tropical cyclone Nadine is affecting the northern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun. A surface trough over the eastern part of the basin is producing scattered moderate convection from 12.5N to 16N between 62W and 66W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are over the NW Caribbean with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Over the SW Caribbean light to gentle winds prevail with seas 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range dominate the central Caribbean while moderate easterly winds are seen over the E Caribbean, including the waters between islands in the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in this area. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nadine is inland near 17.2N 90.6W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Nadine will drift farther W and dissipate through Sun evening. Lingering rough seas over the far northwest Caribbean will subside through late Sun. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin thereafter through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Oscar. A cold front enters the region near 31N56W and extends SW to 25N67W where it becomes stationary to western Cuba. A few showers are near and ahead of the front but mainly N of 28N. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure located over the eastern of United States dominates the waters W of the front and the Florida Peninsula. Father east, two surface troughs are producing scattered to numerous moderate convection from 24N to 28N between 44W and 47W and from 26N to 28N between 35W and 37W. Aside for Hurricane Oscar, the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure situated in the vicinity of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted across the tropical Atlantic while mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 20N and E of 65W. In general, seas are 5 to 8 ft with the highest seas NE and N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about 23N, NE of the easternmost Canary Islands, and from 09N to 19N between the Cape Verde Islands and 50W. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Oscar is near the Turks and Caicos Islands at 21.3N 72.2W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Oscar will move to 21.0N 73.5W near Great Inagua Island Sun morning, then continue toward the coast of eastern Cuba near 20.6N 74.8W Sun evening. Oscar will move inland over Cuba and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.6N 75.8W Mon morning, then move northward to 21.4N 76.0W Mon evening. Oscar will move to 22.2N 75.5W Tue morning, cross the southern Bahamas and reach 23.8N 74.2W by Tue evening. Oscar will change little in intensity as it moves to the northeast of the Bahamas through mid week. Elsewhere, a cold front from 31N55W to 26N55W will drift eastward through Sun, then weaken to a trough through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail west of the front through Tue. $$ KRV