542 AXNT20 KNHC 201755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Oct 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Oscar is centered near 20.6N 74.1W at 20/1800 UTC or 50 nm WSW of Great Inagua Island, moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Oscar remains a very small system, with hurricane-force winds extending only out to 10 nm from the center, and tropical storm force winds reach as far as 40 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends as far as 100 nm from the center. 12 ft seas extend as far as 30 nm out from the center with maximum seas of up to 15 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to make landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon or evening. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Tue. The Remnants Of Nadine are centered near 16.5N 93.0W as of 20/1500 UTC or 140 nm SSW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico, moving WSW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Some scattered moderate convection continues across the NW Caribbean in association with a trailing outer band of Nadine. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas up to 12 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco into Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches, are expected for the remaining portions of southeastern Mexico into Guatemala and Belize. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Oscar at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W from 20N southward to 06N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 33W and 38W. A second tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis extends along 74W from inland Colombia to near 20N. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends southwestward to 07N27W. The ITCZ runs from 10N46W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 39W and 52W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 28W eastward. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far southwestern Caribbean to the Colombia Low centered near 11N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is depicted on satellite from 13N southward, between 75W and 81W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the remnants of T.D. Nadine are occurring across the southwestern Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between the remnants of T.D. Nadine to the south and strong high pressure over the eastern United States supports fresh to strong NE to E winds across the southern half of the Gulf waters, while the northern half is seeing moderate to fresh NE to E winds per recent scatterometer data. Seas across much of the interior Gulf are 8 to 10 ft, surrounded by seas of 4 to 8 ft closer to the coasts of the United States, Mexico, and Cuba. For the forecast, the Remnants Of Nadine are moving west- southwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. These remnants will dissipate this evening. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will continue to affect much of the basin into Mon as strong high pressure builds over the southeast United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms on the outer edges of Hurricane Oscar are impacting the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas persist near the Yucatan Channel between high pressure north of the area and T.D. Nadine, currently inland over southern Mexico and weakening while drifting westward. Gentle to moderate E winds and moderate seas persist elsewhere across the Caribbean. For the forecast, Hurricane Oscar will move inland to 20.4N 74.8W this evening, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 75.6W Mon morning. Tropical Storm Oscar will be near 21.1N 76.0W Mon evening, 22.1N 75.7W Tue morning, and 23.0N 75.0W Tue evening. Oscar will be at 24.0N 73.7W Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas persist near the Yucatan Channel, between high pressure north of the area and the Remnants of Nadine, weakening over southern Mexico and drifting westward. These winds and seas will diminish through Mon night as Nadine moves farther away and the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Oscar. A stationary front enters the region near 31N55W and extends southwestward to 25N66W. A surface trough then extends from 25N66W to 23N78W. High pressure building in behind the stationary front and trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in NNE swell for areas west of 65W and north of 22N. Another surface trough is analyzed from 07N44W to 16N43W. Convection near this trough is associated with the ITCZ and a tropical wave to the east. Three other surface troughs are analyzed in the Atlantic north of 21N between 36W and 58W, but no significant convection or changes in winds or seas are noted. Aside from these features and Hurricane Oscar, ridging dominates much of the Atlantic stemming from a 1024 mb high centered near 34N16W. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas prevail from 20N southward and east of 60W. Scatterometer data also shows moderate to fresh NE winds north of 20N and east of 35W to the African coast. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Oscar will move inland to 20.4N 74.8W this evening, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 75.6W Mon morning. Tropical Storm Oscar will be near 21.1N 76.0W Mon evening, 22.1N 75.7W Tue morning, and 23.0N 75.0W Tue evening. Oscar will be at 24.0N 73.7W Wed morning. Oscar will dissipate early Thu. Elsewhere, a cold front from 31N53W to 25N64W will drift eastward today, then weaken to a trough through the early part of the week. $$ Adams