000 AXNT20 KNHC 210558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0557 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Oscar is bringing tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall and storm surge to portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical Storm Oscar is centered near 20.2N 74.9W at 21/0600 UTC or 40 nm W of the eastern tip of Cuba, moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends as far as 90 nm from the center. Peak seas are 13 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Additional weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra Mountains. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions of the north shore of eastern Cuba this evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Oscar at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 37W from 20N southward to 07N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 33W and 38W. A second tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis extends along 76W south of eastern Cuba to off the coast of Colombia. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and extends southwestward to 10N23W. The ITCZ runs from 10N23W to 08N31W and from 11N46W to 09N59W. A surface trough is analyzed along 45W from 14N southward to 09N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 12N between 23W and 31W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 09N to 14N between 44W and 56W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 45W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is depicted south of 24N west of 95W and over the Bay of Campeche is associated with a surface trough in the area. The pressure gradient between the remnants of Nadine to the south and strong high pressure over the eastern of United States continues to support fresh to strong NE to E winds across most of the Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are in general 7 to 9 ft, except for seas 4 to 6 ft in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure building over the southeastern United States will maintain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas through Mon night, before the high pressure starts to weaken and conditions improve for the rest of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Oscar. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean. Upper diffluence is helping to sustain this convection. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms are also noted over the SW Caribbean, and across the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Oscar is inland over the eastern tip over Cuba near 20.3N 74.6W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Oscar will remain inland near 20.4N 75.0W through Mon morning, then move off the northern coast of Cuba Mon afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the northern entrance to the Windward Passage through Mon morning. For the remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh trades and slight to moderate seas will prevail this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Oscar. A surface trough extends from 31N53W to 23N74W. A few showers and thunderstorms are near and ahead of the trough. Strong high pressure over the southeast of United States in the wake of the trough is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly west of 66W, accompanied by combined seas of 8 to 10 ft in northerly swell NE of the Bahamas. Another surface trough extends from 30N41W to 27N49W producing scattered moderate convection from north of 27N between 42.5W and 54W. Aside for Tropical Storm Oscar, the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure situated in the vicinity of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are observed along the southern periphery of ridge, and off the coast of northwest Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, newly downgraded Tropical Storm Oscar is inland over eastern Cuba near 20.3N 74.6W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west- southwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Oscar will remain inland near 20.4N 75.0W Mon morning, then start moving off the northern coast of Cuba and reaching 20.9N 75.3W by Mon evening. Oscar will continue across the southern Bahamas reaching 21.9N 74.9W Tue morning, 23.4N 73.7W Tue evening, and 25.1N 72.1W Wed morning. Oscar will become post- tropical and move to 27.3N 70.2W Wed evening, before dissipating altogether by late Thu. Elsewhere, weak low pressure near 28N70W will dissipate through Mon. $$ KRV