000 AXNT20 KNHC 211023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Oct 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Oscar is bringing tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall and storm surge to portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical Storm Oscar is inland over eastern Cuba centered near 20.2N 75.1W at 21/0900 UTC or 0 nm E of Guantanamo Cuba, drifting west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends as far as 90 nm from the center. Peak seas are 12 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Additional weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra Mountains. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions of the north shore of eastern Cuba this evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Oscar at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave was added to the analysis along 29W from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave was relocated to along 51W from 20N southward to 07N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A second tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean between Jamaica and Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the coast of Colombia between 73W and 76W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and extends southwestward to 10N25W. The ITCZ runs from 08N30W to 10N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 11N between 27W and 31W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 45W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is ongoing off the Mexican state of Veracruz along a coastal trough. Strong high pressure north of the basin is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds across all but the far northern Gulf. Combined seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted over the eastern Gulf, with 8 to 10 ft over the western Gulf in NE swell. For the forecast, the strong high pressure over the southeastern United States will maintain fresh NE winds and large swell into Tue, before the high pressure starts to weaken and conditions improve for the rest of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Oscar. Strong thunderstorms are active over the northern Windward Passage near the coast of Cuba, associated with T.S. Oscar. Winds to tropical storm strength and rough seas are possibly ongoing in this area as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active across the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Oscar is inland over eastern Cuba near 20.2N 75.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is drifting west at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Oscar will remain over eastern Cuba and move to 20.6N 75.3W this afternoon,then move the north coast of Cuba toward 21.5N 75.0W by Tue morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the northern entrance to the Windward Passage through Mon morning. For the remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh trades and slight to moderate seas will prevail this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Oscar. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from 31N50W to 25N60W to 24N70W. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds along with large NE swell are evident west of this trough. Farther east, a ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 31N28W southwestward toward 20N55W. Gentle breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas persist along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas south of the axis. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Oscar is inland over eastern Cuba near 20.2N 75.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is drifting west at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Oscar will remain over eastern Cuba and move to 20.6N 75.3W this afternoon,then move the north coast of Cuba toward 21.5N 75.0W by Tue morning. Oscar will continue across the southern Bahamas, reaching 22.9N 74.0W Tue afternoon. Oscar will then move into the open Atlantic reaching 24.5N 72.4W Wed morning, and 26.7N 70.2W Wed afternoon, before dissipating Thu morning. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds and large NE swell will persist mainly north of 27N and west of 67W through mid week, between high pressure over the southeast U.S. and Oscar to the southeast. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Fri. $$ Christensen