000 AXNT20 KNHC 211823 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Oscar is centered near 20.6N 75.8W at 21/1800 UTC or 90 nm WNW of the eastern tip of Cuba, moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends as far as 100 nm from the center, generally from 18N to 21N between 72W and 76W. Peak seas are 12 ft. A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba later today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight restrengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas of Cuba and parts of the southeastern Bahamas today, and in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Oscar at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed with an axis along 33W from 03N to 14N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 08N to 12N between 30W and 36W. A broad tropical wave is analyzed with an axis along 52W from 16N southward to the border of Brazil and French Guiana, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted via satellite from 08N to 16N between 48W and 59W. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with an axis along 77W, running from central Jamaica to near 10N77W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N between the coast of Colombia and 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends southwestward to 10N26W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed near the western end of the monsoon trough. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far southwest Caribbean through a 1008 mb Colombia Low to the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is ongoing off the Mexican state of Veracruz along a coastal trough. Strong high pressure north of the basin is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across much of the central and eastern Gulf, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere. Combined seas of 4 to 8 ft are noted over much of the central and eastern Gulf, with 8 to 10 ft over the western Gulf in NE swell. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the southeastern United States will maintain fresh NE winds and large NE swell into Tue, before the high pressure starts to weaken and conditions improve for the rest of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Oscar, and the Tropical Waves section for details on a wave moving across the basin. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across portions of the central Caribbean due to convergent surface winds between Oscar and a tropical wave moving across the basin. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean, with no significant convection associated. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail across much of the Caribbean. Moderate seas are analyzed over the NW Caribbean, with slight seas elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Oscar will remain over eastern Cuba today then move northward and back over water reaching near 21N 75.3W this evening, then reach near 22.2N 74.7W Tue morning, then exit the region to the NE through Wed. For the remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh trades and slight to moderate seas will prevail this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Oscar, and the Tropical Waves section for details on waves moving across the Atlantic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along and ahead of a trough reaching from 31N55W to 26N58W to 24N72W. Fresh to strong NE winds along with seas of 8-10 ft in NE swell are evident north and west of this trough. In the central Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is depicted via satellite across a large area from 13N to 19N between 33W and 47W, likely due to convergent surface winds between two tropical waves in the Atlantic and a large 1033 mb high centered near 40N25W. A 1015 mb low and attendant surface trough are analyzed near 28N73W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near and to the NE of these features. Across the Atlantic east of 60W and south of 25N, moderate to fresh E to NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Oscar will remain over eastern Cuba today then move northward and back over water reaching near 21.0N 75.3W this evening, then move into the SE Bahamas near 22.2N 74.7W Tue morning, then continue northeastward and reach near 23.7N 73.1W Tue evening, then move into the open Atlantic reaching near 25.6N 71.2W Wed morning, and near 28.3N 68.3W Wed evening, before dissipating Thu morning. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds and large NE swell will persist mainly north of 25N and west of 67W through mid week, between high pressure over the southeast U.S. and Oscar to the southeast. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Fri. $$ Adams