000 AXNT20 KNHC 220544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Oscar is centered near 22.3N 75.1W at 22/0600 UTC or 60 nm S of Long Island, moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is now displaced over 100 nm to the east of the center from 20N to 24N between 70W and 73W. Seas are peaking near 12 ft. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast and a faster northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas later today. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by tonight. Through today, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20 inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Oscar at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W from 03N to 15N, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 26W and 41W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 16N southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 48W and 58W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W, from Jamaica southward. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends southwestward to 10N22W. No significant convection is noted. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Isolated showers are depicted south of 23.5N west of 96W in association to a surface trough over the western Gulf. High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are E of 92W, with gentle to moderate winds W of 92W. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over the SE and SW Gulf, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern United States will maintain fresh NE winds and large NE swell into early Tue, before the high pressure starts to weaken across the Gulf and conditions improve for the rest of the week. New high pressure over the southeastern United States will build across the basin Fri night through Sat night bringing a modest increase in winds and seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Oscar. Scattered moderate convection is noted across and south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in association to a surface trough. Outside of convection, mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, winds and seas have subsided over the northern Windward Passage as Tropical Storm Oscar moves farther north of the area. Swell over the Yucatan Channel is also subsiding. Farther east, NE Atlantic swell will impact Atlantic passages over the Leeward Islands through Tue night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas may persist over the southeast Caribbean during the middle part of the week following a tropical wave moving through the region. Looking ahead, the fresh trade winds will spread into the south-central Caribbean by Fri, while additional Atlantic swell impacts the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Oscar. Broad troughing generally prevails over the waters W of 49W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 9 to 12 ft are over the waters N of 26N and W of 71W. Elsewhere W of 49W, light to gentle winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail in NE Swell. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N and E of 49W. Fresh to locally strong winds are found from 15N to 26N and E of 37W with seas 8 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere with seas in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Oscar is near 21.8N 75.4W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Oscar will move into the southern Bahamas and reach 22.8N 74.8W Tue morning, then become post- tropical and move to 24.3N 73.3W Tue evening. Oscar will weaken further to a remnant low near 26.5N 71.0W Wed morning, move to 29.3N 68.5W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning as it is absorbed into a larger area of low pressure developing west of Bermuda. A weak cold front may form from this low pressure to the central Bahamas Thu, then drift eastward as the low pressure shifts farther north. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. Fri into Sat following a reinforcing front moving into the waters off northeast Florida. $$ KRV