000 AXNT20 KNHC 221000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Oscar is centered about near 22.7N 74.8W at 22/0900 UTC or 40 nm SSE of Long Island, moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The center of Oscar is exposed, about 120 nm west of scattered moderate convection, which extends from 20N to 22N, between 70W and 73W. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast and a faster northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas later today. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by tonight. Localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. With rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Oscar at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W from 03N to 15N, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 30W and 35W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W from 17N southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 58W and 60W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, from western Jamaica to central Panama. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N16W and extends southwestward to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 07N30W. No significant convection is noted. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the southeastern U.S. is maintaining moderate to fresh winds across the southeastern and south-central Gulf, where combined seas have been still 5 to 8 ft overnight with a component of NE swell. A scatterometer satellite pass also showed a small area of 20 kt NE winds over the southern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. For the forecast, the high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will weaken through mid week, allowing fresh NE winds and associated seas to diminish across the southeastern and south- central Gulf. Gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas will prevail by late Wed across the basin. Looking ahead, new high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow fresh E winds and building seas across the southeast Gulf Fri into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Oscar. The presence of Oscar over the southern Bahamas is breaking up the standard ridge of high pressure found over the western Atlantic, and conversely this pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas over much of the Caribbean between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh winds have persisted overnight over the far northwest Caribbean, supported by high pressure over the southeastern U.S. Swell of 5 to 7 ft lingers near the Yucatan Channel. Similar conditions are noted over the eastern Caribbean as well. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Colombia, and east of the Leeward Islands associated with an approaching tropical wave. A surface trough is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms near Puerto Rico this morning also. For the forecast, the weakening high pressure over the southeast U.S. will allow winds and seas to diminish across the Yucatan Channel and northwest Caribbean today. Farther east, NE Atlantic swell will impact Atlantic passages over the Leeward Islands through tonight. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas may persist over the southeast Caribbean during the middle part of the week following a tropical wave moving through the region. Looking ahead, the fresh trade winds will spread into the south-central Caribbean by Fri, while additional Atlantic swell impacts the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Oscar. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from 31N50W to 23N65W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas are noted north of 28N and west fo 65W, well north of Oscar. Farther east, a ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 31N32W southwestward toward 28N50W. Gentle breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas persist along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas south of the axis. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Oscar will move across the southern Bahamas to 23.8N 73.8W through this afternoon, become post-tropical and then move to 25.7N 71.7W Wed morning. The remnant low of Oscar will reach 28.5N 69.5W Wed afternoon, and will dissipate by Thu morning as it is absorbed into a larger area of low pressure developing west of Bermuda. A weak cold front may form from this low pressure to the central Bahamas around this time, then drift eastward as the low pressure shifts farther to the northeast into the central Atlantic. Looking ahead to late Fri through Sat, high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. and the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda following a weak reinforcing front moving over the region. $$ Christensen