026 AXNT20 KNHC 221817 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force winds will start at 23/0000 UTC, from 26N to 29N between 65W and 67W. The area southerly gale-force winds will be expanding northward while the remnant low pressure center of Oscar is moving northward. The center of the remnants of Oscar, at 22/1800 UTC, is close to 23.0N 74.0W, in the southern half of the Bahamas. This position is also about 62 nm/115 km to the ESE of Long Island. Oscar is moving is toward the NE, or 040 degrees 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The maximum sea height value is 12 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale- force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere within 180 nm of the E semicircle, and within 60 nm of the W semicircle of the center. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong NE to E winds, and rough seas, from 27N northward between 65W and 79W. Expect also: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NE swell, from 27N northward from 79W westward. Strong NE winds are from 26N northward from 74W westward. Strong NE to E winds are from 28N northward between 60W and 74W. Mostly fresh to some strong E to SE winds are between 60W and 74W, on the eastern side of Oscar. Moderate to rough seas are from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 21N to 23N between 69W and 71W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between 57W and 75W in the Atlantic Ocean; and within 270 nm of the southern coast of Hispaniola in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough curves along 31N52W 28N55W 27N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 40W and 57W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 17N northward, from the 31N52W 27N59W surface trough eastward. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 01N to 10N between 30W and 46W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Mostly fresh to some strong SE winds are from 23N southward between 50W and 60W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 20N between 56W and 68W; and from 15N to 20N between 50W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 05 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Sierra Leone and Guinea, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W, to 07N38W. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 07N to 10N between 14W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 22N97W, through the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the northern sections of Belize, to 17N82W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 90W westward; and off the coast of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 80W westward. Moderate seas are from 27N southward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Fresh winds are elsewhere from the Florida Panhandle eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will weaken through mid week, allowing fresh NE winds and associated seas to diminish across the southeastern and south-central Gulf. Gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas will prevail by late Wed across the basin. Looking ahead, new high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow fresh E winds and building seas across the southeast Gulf Fri into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 22N97W, through the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the northern sections of Belize, to 17N82W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 90W westward; and off the coast of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 80W westward. Moderate seas are in the eastern one-third of the area, and in the western one-third of the area. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are from 16N northward from Jamaica westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh E to SE winds are from 74W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 22/1200 UTC, are: 0.42 in San Juan in Puerto Rico and in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.22 in Trinidad; 0.08 in Curacao; 0.07 in Kingston in Jamaica; and 0.05 in Monterrey in Mexico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Weakening high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow winds and seas to diminish across the Yucatan Channel and northwest Caribbean today. Farther east, NE Atlantic swell will impact Atlantic passages over the Leeward Islands through tonight. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas may persist over the southeast Caribbean during the middle part of the week following a tropical wave moving through the region. Looking ahead, the fresh trade winds will spread into the south-central Caribbean by Fri, while additional Atlantic swell impacts the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about gale-force winds that will be associated with the Oscar remnant low pressure center. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 17N northward, from the 31N52W 27N59W surface trough eastward. Strong NE winds are from 16N to 26N from 36W eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 05N southward between 30W and 40W. Fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from the monsoon trough/ITCZ northward from 40W eastward. Fresh SE winds are 05N southward between 17W and 30W. Fresh NE to E winds are from 09N to 25N between 40W and 50W. Fresh NE winds are from 02N southward from 43W westward. Moderate to rough seas are from 08N to 28N between 30W and 50W; and from 18N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The remnants of Oscar are near 23.0N 74.0W at 200 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Oscar will maintain intensity as it moves to near 24.7N 72.5W this evening, then become post-tropical Wed morning near 27.8N 70.0W, move to near 31.5N 68.0W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. The remnant low of Oscar is forecast to dissipate by Thu morning as it is absorbed into a larger area of low pressure developing west of Bermuda. A weak cold front may form from this low pressure to the central Bahamas around this time, then drift eastward as the low pressure shifts farther to the northeast into the central Atlantic. Looking ahead to late Fri through Sat, high pressure will build over the southeastern U.S. and the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda following a weak reinforcing front moving over the region. $$ mt/ja