000 AXNT20 KNHC 222135 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Oct 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic gale warning: The 1007 mb remnant low of Oscar is near 23N74W moving NE at 10 kt. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds to the northeast and east of the remnant low will become strong to gale force winds tonight. By early Wed, new low pressure of 1005 mb is expected to develop near 27N70W, with a developing cold front to near eastern Cuba. A larger area of strong to gale force winds will be east and southeast of this low. The low, and associated gale force winds, will shift N of 31N by early Wed evening. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 41W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 10N between 40W and 45W. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 60W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm east of the wave axis N of 11N. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 80W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 05 knots to 10 knots. Only limited convection is near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 08N38W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 14W and 18W, and from 00N to 09N between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds are east of 90W, with light to gentle winds W of 90W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will continue to weaken through Thu allowing for fresh northeast winds and associated seas to diminish some across the southeastern and south-central Gulf waters while Gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will be elsewhere over the basin by late Fri night. Looking ahead, stronger high pressure will build across the eastern United States during the weekend allowing for fresh east winds and building seas to exist over most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean as well as the far NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the eastern Caribbean, 4-5 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 2-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, NE Atlantic swell will impact Atlantic passages over the Leeward Islands through tonight. A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is followed by moderate to fresh east to southeast winds. The wave will cross the Lesser Antilles and enter the far eastern Caribbean tonight, then reach the central Caribbean late Thu and the western Caribbean at the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will follow the wave. Trades increase to fresh to strong offshore NW Colombia starting Fri. Another tropical wave well east of the forecast waters is expected to enter the eastern part of the Tropical N Atlantic Wed night, followed by fresh to strong trades. The wave will move across the rest of the Tropical N Atlantic through early Fri, enter the eastern Caribbean Fri afternoon, and move across the central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong trades will follow the wave through the Tropical N Atlantic waters, and mostly fresh trades to follow it as it moves across the Caribbean. NE Atlantic swell will move through the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands late Thu night into early Fri before subsiding Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about a gale warning. Former Tropical Cyclone Oscar has degenerated into a remnant low. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are in the vicinity of the low. A 1026 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 38N64W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the remnant low of Oscar is supporting fresh to strong winds over the waters W of 65W, where seas are in the 6-10 ft range. Farther east high pressure prevails. Fresh to strong winds are noted from 12N to 21N E of 35W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, aside from the gale warning discussed above, a cold front will extend from the low to 31N69W and to near the southeastern Bahamas at that time. The cold front will weaken as it moves eastward across the eastern part of the forecast waters through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly winds E of the front N of 26N will shift NE of the forecast waters Thu. Looking ahead from Fri through the weekend, high pressure will build over the southeastern U.S. and the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda following a weak reinforcing front moving over the region. The associated gradient will lead to increasing northeast to east winds over most of the western half of the forecast waters starting Sun. $$ AL