000 AXNT20 KNHC 230609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low, remnants of Oscar is located east of the central Bahamas near 24N71W. Strong to gale SE to S winds along with 7 to 9 ft seas are found up to 60 nm east of the low center. This low will move north-northeastward while gradually deepens over the next couple of days. Aided by a frontal boundary forming near 30N65W, the area of strong to gale winds and rough to very rough seas will expand farther north and southeast of the center by Wednesday. As this low pulls north of 31N Wednesday night, marine conditions north of 27N should gradually improve through Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 41W and 51W. An tropical wave is near 61W from the northern Leeward Islands southward to over the Venezuela/Guyana border. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is found near this feature. The western Caribbean tropical wave has become too weak to identify, and will dissipate by Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast, then reaches southwestward to 08N20W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N20W across 06N30W to 08N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 50 nm north and 150 nm south of both features. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing widely scattered moderate convection offshore from northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers over the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1021 mb high near the Florida Panhandle to a 1018 mb high near Veracruz, Mexico dominates the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Mainly gentle ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high near the Florida Panhandle will continue to weaken through Thu, allowing fresh NE winds and associated seas to diminish across the southeastern Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist through late Fri night. Looking ahead, stronger high pressure will build across the eastern United States during the weekend, which should cause fresh easterly winds and building seas across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident at the eastern basin, and near the Island of Youth. Gentle NNE to ESE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the Lesser Antilles will move across the central basin through late Thu, and across the western basin through Sat. A second tropical wave will enter the eastern basin late Thu into Fri, and then move across the central basin through Sat and into the western basin Sun. Looking ahead, in the wake of both tropical waves, building high pressure north of the region will support fresh trade winds and building seas across the Caribbean by late this week and into early next week, with strong trade winds expected off Colombia by Fri night. Another round of E swell associated with the increased trade winds will impact the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands by late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above a Western Atlantic Gale Warning. A surface trough stretches northeastward from eastern Cuba across the central Bahamas and the 1007 mb low mentioned in the Special Features section to near 30N65W. Convergent southeasterly winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to generate scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 22N between 65W and 70W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen farther east, north of 20N between 56W and 65W. The southern end of a Mid-latitude trough is inducing scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 40W and 45W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to SE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted north of 22N between 64W and 75W. Farther west, moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present north of 20N between 75W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the central Atlantic north of 22N between 35W and 64W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 22N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, mostly moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas exist. For the remainder of the Atlantic basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the low mentioned in the Special Features section will continue to develop into a large gale center, and then move to the west of Bermuda by late Wed and farther into the north central Atlantic Thu. This will pull in slightly cooler and drier air on the west side of the low, forming a cold front that will extend from the low pressure through the Bahamas late Wednesday, then sweep eastward across the western Atlantic by Sat. A reinforcing cold front will follow, but will start to dissipate as it enters the waters between Florida and Bermuda by late Fri. Winds and seas will start to improve across the entire basin late Wed night into Thu as the gale center lifts northward. Looking ahead, another cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Sun. $$ Chan