000 AXNT20 KNHC 230947 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Oct 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: 1007 mb low pressure, the remnants of Oscar, is located east of the central Bahamas near 25N69W. Strong to gale SE to S winds along with 7 to 10 ft seas are found up to 60 nm east of the low center. This low will move north-northeastward while gradually deepens over the next couple of days. Aided by a frontal boundary forming near 30N65W, the area of strong to gale winds and rough to very rough seas will expand farther north and southeast of the center THIS this morning. As this low pulls north of 31N late today, marine conditions north of 27N should gradually improve through Thu. In addition, divergent flow aloft associated with an upper trough is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms from 22N to 25N between 67W and 70W. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 15 knots. Convection is described below in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave near 62W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. A few showers are evident over the northern Leeward Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast, then reaches southwestward to 08N20W. A segment of the ITCZ continues westward from 08N20W across 06N30W to 07N40W. Another segment continues from 06N45W to 07N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 35W, and from 07N to 09N between 45W and 52W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing widely scattered moderate convection offshore off western Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the southeastern United State is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds over the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. For the forecast, the high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will weaken through Thu allowing for moderate to fresh northeast winds and associated seas to diminish across the southeastern Gulf waters. Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist through late Fri night. Looking ahead, stronger high pressure will build across the eastern United States during the weekend allowing for fresh east winds and building seas over mainly the southeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern dominates the Caribbean, supporting gentle breezes and slight seas over most of the basin west of 70W. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas accompany the tropical wave moving into the eastern Caribbean. Other than the showers and thunderstorms already mentioned over the northern Leeward Islands and off western Panama, a few thunderstorms are noted near Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. For the forecast, the tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean will move across the central Caribbean through through late Thu, and across the western Caribbean through Sat. A second tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean late Thu into Fri, move across the central Caribbean through Sat, and into the western Caribbean Sun. Looking ahead, building high pressure north of the region will support fresh trade winds and building seas following these tropical waves across the Caribbean by late this week and into early next week, with strong trade winds expected off Colombia by Fri night. Another round of E swell associated with the increased trade winds will impact the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands by late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above a Western Atlantic Gale Warning. A developing frontal boundary extends from 31N50W to 30N65W to the 1007 mb low pressure centered near 25N69W, then is a trough to the central Bahamas. A scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE to E winds north of 27N and west of 70W. Buoy observations show rough seas in this area as well. In addition to the gale force winds east of the low center, fresh to strong SE to S winds and rough to very rough seas are ongoing east of the low north of 22N between 65W and 70W. Farther east, a ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 31N34W to 25N50W. Gentle breezes and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted along the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds are noted south of the axis, with 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the 1007 mb low pressure near 25N69W will continue to develop into a large gale center that will move to the west of Bermuda by late today and farther into the north central Atlantic Thu. This will pull in slightly cooler and drier air on the west side of the low, forming a cold front that will extend from the low pressure through the Bahamas late today, then sweep to the east of region by Sat. Gale force winds will shift north of 31N today, and winds and seas will diminish across the entire basin into Thu as the gale center lifts farther northward. A reinforcing cold front will follow, but will start to dissipate as it enters the waters between Florida and Bermuda by late Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Sun. $$ Christensen