641 AXNT20 KNHC 231804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Oct 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... The remnants of Oscar are a 1007 mb low pressure center that are close to 26N68W. Ship observations from the ship VRMX8, that is just to the east of the low pressure center, have been showing gale-force winds and rough seas, for the last 12 hours or so. The forecast consists of gale-force SE to S winds, and rough seas, from 26N northward between 62W and 67W. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 22N northward between 60W and 69W. Other areas of interest are: strong to near gale-force N to NE winds, and rough seas, are from 28N northward between 70W and 79W; winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NE to E swell, from 26N northward between 70W and 79W. A warm front extends from the 1007 mb remnants of Oscar, through 31N66W, to 33N63W, to 32N53W. A surface trough extends from the remnants of Oscar, to 22N77W at the coast of Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N northward between 50W and 70W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 23/1200 UTC, are: 1.20 in Bermuda; 0.02 in Nassau in the Bahamas; and 0.01 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 15N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: nearby precipitation is also in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N southward between 40W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along near 63W/64W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N to 23N between 60W and 66W. An upper level trough is about 540 nm to the northwest of this tropical wave. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is about 210 nm to the northeast of this tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong is also from 13N southward between 60W and 67W; and from 14N to 20N between the 63W/64W tropical wave and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 09N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to 360 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 50W eastward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 11N southward between 50W and 62W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 20N94W, through the northern parts of Guatemala and the northern sections of Belize, to 17N82W, and to 12N86W, in the south central Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N southward in the Gulf of Mexico, and from 70W westward in the Caribbean Sea. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are moving from 24N85W in the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel to 18N85W. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are in the remainder of the Gulf. Moderate seas are from 26N southward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the area. High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will continue to weaken through Thu allowing for fresh northeast winds and associated seas to diminish across the southeastern Gulf waters. Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist through late Fri night. Looking ahead, stronger high pressure will build across the eastern United States during the weekend allowing for fresh east winds and building seas over mainly the southeastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 20N94W, through the northern parts of Guatemala and the northern sections of Belize, to 17N82W, and to 12N86W, in the south central Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N southward in the Gulf of Mexico, and from 70W westward in the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia westward. Fresh NE winds are moving from 24N85W in the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel to 18N85W. Moderate northerly winds are elsewhere from 85W westward. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are from 70W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 22/1200 UTC, are: 1.04 in Guadeloupe; 0.02 in Trinidad; and 0.01 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean will move across the central Caribbean through Thu evening, and across the western Caribbean through Sat. A second tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean early Thu evening into Fri, move across the central Caribbean through Sat, and into the western Caribbean Sun. Looking ahead, building high pressure north of the region will support fresh trade winds and building seas following these tropical waves across the Caribbean by late this week and into early next week, with strong trade winds expected off Colombia by Fri night. Another round of E swell associated with the increased trade winds will impact the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands by late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, regarding the Atlantic Ocean gale-force wind warning. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 17N northward from 60W eastward. Two frontal boundaries are reaching 30N/31N between 30W and 50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward between 30W and 50W. Fresh NE winds are between 29N19W 24N38W 21N55W and 07N56W 09N37W 14N24W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ southward from 50W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 07N to 26N between 20W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to minimal gale force persist northeast of the 1007 mb low pressure that is the remnant low of Oscar centered east of the central Bahamas near 26N68W. The low pressure is part of a bigger trough that reaches toward Bermuda. The low will continue to develop into a large gale center that will move to the west of Bermuda by late today and farther into the north central Atlantic Thu. This will pull in slightly cooler and drier air on the west side of the low, forming a cold front that will extend from the low pressure through the Bahamas this afternoon, then sweep to the east of region by Sat. Gale force winds will shift north of 31N today, and winds and seas will diminish across the entire basin into Thu as the gale center lifts farther northward. A reinforcing cold front will follow, but will start to dissipate as it enters the waters between Florida and Bermuda by late Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Sun. $$ mt/ja