000 AXNT20 KNHC 232328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Oct 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure system of 1005 mb is located near 30.5N68W. Gale force southerly winds are southeast of the low center roughly from 28N to 31N between 65W and 68W where seas are in the 10 to 13 ft range. The ongoing gale force winds are forecast to lift north of 31N late tonight. The relaxing gradient will allow for winds and seas to improve over the entire basin on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 47W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 05N to 10N between 43W and 53W. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 65W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. A few showers are evident near the northern end of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near 10N14W, then continues westward to near 08N24W. The ITCZ extends from 08N24W to 09N46W to 09N60W. Aside for the convection associated with the Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 10W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb situated over the southeastern United State is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds over the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate Ne to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. Mid to upper-level clouds, associated with strong winds aloft, extend from NE Mexico across the NW and N-central parts of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will continue to weaken through Thu allowing for fresh northeast winds and associated seas to diminish across the southeastern Gulf waters. Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist through late Fri night. Looking ahead, stronger high pressure will build across the eastern United States during the weekend allowing for fresh east winds and building seas over mainly the southeastern Gulf. These winds may freshen even more early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern dominates the NW and central Caribbean, supporting light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas, highest near the Yucatan Channel. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to locally fresh SE winds over the eastern part of the basin just behind the tropical wave with axis along 65W. The Atlantic ridge is now reaching the NE Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms are flaring up over northern Hispaniola ahead of a surface trough that reaches eastern Cuba. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers are observed, particularly over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean will move across the central Caribbean through Thu evening, and across the western Caribbean through Sat. A second tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean early Thu evening into Fri, move across the central Caribbean through Sat, and into the western Caribbean Sun. Looking ahead, building high pressure north of the region will support fresh trade winds and building seas following these tropical waves across the Caribbean by late this week and into early next week, with strong trade winds expected off Colombia by Fri night. Another round of E swell associated with the increased trade winds will impact the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands by late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Western Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A low pressure system of 1005 mb is located near 30.5N68W. Gale force southerly winds are southeast of the low roughly from 28N to 30N between 65W and 68W. A cold front has formed from the low to the central Bahamas. fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas follow the front. A trough extends from the low to 25N70W and to the the eastern tip of Cuba. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the trough axis while scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the convective band affecting the waters from 20N to 30N between 55W and 65W. High pressure over the SE of United States dominates Florida and surrounding waters. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1022 mb high pressure located midway between the Madeira and the Azores Islands. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted near the tropical wave located along 47W. Mainly moderate trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate the tropical Atlantic. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 are noted N of 20N and E of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low will track NE passing to the W of Bermuda tonight and farther into the north central Atlantic Thu. The cold front will shift eastward and weaken over the eastern part of the area Fri into Sat, possibly transitioning to a shearline over the SE waters by Sun afternoon and lingering into Mon. The ongoing gale force winds are forecast to lift north of 31N late tonight. The relaxing gradient will allow for winds and seas to improve over the entire basin on Thu. A cold front may drop south into the northern forecast waters late Sun and into early next week as strong high pressure builds behind it and eventually over takes the front. A tight gradient is most probable to lead to fresh to strong northeast to east across the waters W of 65W starting Mon afternoon and into Mon night. $$ GR