759 AXNT20 KNHC 240613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front curves southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N63W to the southeast Bahamas. Strong to gale southerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are lingering east of the cold front, north of 26N between 57W and 65W. As the front lifts farther northward later tonight and Thursday, these winds will subside to between fresh and strong early Thursday morning. Seas should drop below 8 ft by late Friday or early Saturday morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 47W and 57W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from just south of Puerto Rico southward to north-central Venezuela. It is moving westward around 10 kt. There is no significant convection near this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Gambia, then reaches southwestward to near 08N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N24W across 06N35W to 07N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 130 nm along either side of both features. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms offshore of northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1020 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to a 1018 mb high near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the east-central, southeastern and south-central Gulf, and eastern Bay of Campeche. gentle N to E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the 1020 mb high will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas into Fri. Looking ahead, stronger high pressure will build across the eastern United States by Fri night, allowing fresh E winds and building seas over mainly the southeastern Gulf into early next week ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the Caribbean basin. Moderate to fresh SE winds along with seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the southeastern basin. Moderate NNE to NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted offshore from Nicaragua, and near the Island of Youth. Mainly gentle NNE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a tropical wave currently south of Puerto Rico will move across the central basin through Thu evening, and across the western basin through Sat. A second tropical wave will enter the eastern basin early Thu evening into Fri, move across the central basin through Sat, and into the western basin Sun. Looking ahead, building high pressure north of the region will support fresh trade winds and building seas following these tropical waves across the basin by late this week and into early next week, with strong trade winds expected off Colombia by Fri night. Another round of E swell associated with the increased trade winds will impact the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands by late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the start about a Gale Warning. A cold front curves southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N63W to the southeast Bahamas. Convergent southerly winds east of the front are triggering scattered moderate convection north of 21N between 54W and 63W. Farther south, a surface trough is causing similar conditions over the Dominican Republic. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident behind the cold front, north of 28N between the front and 73W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW to NW winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft are noted north of 20N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the gale force winds will shift north of the region over the next several hours as the cold front lifts northward. The front will stall and weaken to a trough through late Thu from east of Bermuda to north of the Mona Passage. Meanwhile a weak reinforcing front will move into the waters between Florida and Bermuda Thu night, then stall and dissipate Fri. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build behind another front expected to move into the waters between Florida and Bermuda late Sun, supporting increased winds and seas across the basin through the early part of next week. $$ Chan