000 AXNT20 KNHC 240855 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the tropical wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave south of the Mona Passage. It is moving westward around 10 kt. There is no significant convection near this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Gambia, then reaches southwestward to near 08N25W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N25W across 06N35W to 07N35W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 90 nm along either side of both features. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms offshore of northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1020 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to a 1019 mb high near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the east-central, southeastern and south-central Gulf, and eastern Bay of Campeche. gentle N to E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the 1020 mb high will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas into Fri. Looking ahead, stronger high pressure will build across the eastern United States by Fri night, allowing fresh E winds and building seas over mainly the southeastern Gulf into early next week ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the Caribbean basin. Moderate to fresh SE winds along with seas at 4 to 6 ft are present across the southeastern Caribbean. Moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted offshore from Nicaragua, and near the Island of Youth. Mainly gentle NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the tropical wave currently south of the Mona Passage will move across the central Caribbean through this evening, and across the western Caribbean through Sat. A second tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean early this evening into Fri, move across the central Caribbean through Sat, and into the western Caribbean Sun. Building high pressure north of the region will support fresh trade winds and building seas following these tropical waves across the Caribbean by late this week and into early next week, with strong trade winds expected off Colombia by Fri night. E swell associated with the increased trade winds will impact the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands by this evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N63W to the southeast Bahamas. This is connected to a deepening low pressure area west of Bermuda. Recent scatterometer satellite data confirms a large area of fresh to strong winds to the southwest of the low pressure, mainly north of 28N between 55W and 70W. Gale force winds that had been active in this area have diminished. Recent fixed and drifting buoy observations along with earlier altimeter satellite data indicate rough seas up to 11 ft in this region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend about 120 nm to the east of the front north of 22N. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas persist elsewhere north of 20N east of 55W. Gentle ridging extends farther eastward north of 20N, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft south of 20N and west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to strong and rough seas north of 28N and east of 70W will gradually diminish through tonight as the low pressure shifts farther into the north- central Atlantic and the front weakens to a trough. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist into Fri. Farther west, second front will move into the waters between Florida and Bermuda tonight, then stall and dissipate Fri. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build behind another front expected to move into the waters between Florida and Bermuda early Mon, supporting increased winds and seas across the basin through the early part of next week. $$ Christensen