000 AXNT20 KNHC 241715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the northern end of the tropical wave to 20N between the Mona Passage and 18N71W in the coastal waters that are on the southern side of the Dominican Republic. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 11N16W, to 08N21W and 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from 08N30W, to 05N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 17N from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough curves from 25N94W, to 20N93W, through the southern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the NW Caribbean Sea, to 12N77W. Rainshowers are possible in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the eastern half of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area. Slight seas are in the Straits of Florida. Moderate seas are from 25N84W into the Yucatan Channel. Mostly slight to some moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and slight seas will occur into Fri along the periphery of building high pressure over the southeastern United States. An increasing pressure gradient between this ridge, multiple tropical waves moving through the Caribbean Sea, and persistent troughing over the Bay of Campeche will support fresh E to NE winds over central and eastern portions of the basin this weekend. By early next week, moderate to fresh E winds will spread westward through the western Gulf, with locally rough seas in E swell developing over the southeastern Gulf by Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the northern end of the tropical wave to 20N between the Mona Passage and 18N71W in the coastal waters that are on the southern side of the Dominican Republic. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough curves from 25N94W, to 20N93W, through the southern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the NW Caribbean Sea, to 12N77W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the western half of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from 74W in Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N southward from 75W westward. Slight to moderate seas cover the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from Puerto Rico eastward. Moderate to fresh surface cyclonic wind flow is between Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 24/1200 UTC, are: 0.05 in Trinidad; and 0.01 Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A tropical wave currently spans from south of the Dominican Republic through western Venezuela; this wave will progress westward over the next few days, reaching the western Caribbean Fri night into Sat. A second tropical wave, currently approaching the Lesser Antilles, will enter the Caribbean Sea tonight and progress westward through this weekend. Building high pressure north of the region will support fresh trades and building seas across much of the basin tonight into early next week following these tropical waves. Periods of strong E winds will be possible off the coast of Colombia each afternoon and night through at least Sun. E swell associated with the increased trade winds will impact the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands by this evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N63W, to 25N64W, to 20N72W between Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas. A surface trough continues from 20N72W, through the Windward Passage, to 19N80W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in the water vapor imagery from 25N northward between 60W and Florida. Slight seas are from the Bahamas toward the west and the southwest. Moderate seas are elsewhere from the cold front westward. Strong to near gale-force SW winds, and rough seas, are from 26N northward between 57W and 68W. Expect also: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas, elsewhere from 26N northward between 56W and 73W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 50W and the cold front. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 24/1200 UTC, are: 6.59 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. A stationary front is from 31N to 33N between 30W and 40W. Expect winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NE to E swell, from 08N to 18N between 37W and 57W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong SE winds are from the ITCZ southward between 30W and 42W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from the monsoon trough southward between 20W and 30W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 30N13W 26N32W 22N45W 20N50W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are from 20N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 992 mb low is centered north of the area near 35N66W, and a cold front trails to the southwest from 31N63W to just north of Haiti. Fresh to strong NW to SW winds associated with this front will continue today north of 27N between 55W and 70W, with winds slowly diminishing tonight into Fri. Rough seas associated with this low will continue north of 27N and east of 72W before slowly diminishing through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will occur east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate this weekend. A weak front will move through the waters off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas tonight into Fri, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds through this weekend. Looking ahead, increasing NE winds and building swell is expected west of 55W and north of the Greater Antilles early next week as another front moves through the waters off the east coast of Florida. $$ mt/ea