000 AXNT20 KNHC 242329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the tropical wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave south of the Mona Passage. It is moving westward around 10 kt. There is no significant convection near this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Gambia, then continues southwestward to near 08N25W. The ITCZ extends westward from 08N25W across 06N35W to 07N35W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 90 nm along either side of both features. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the Gulf waters anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure located over southern Mississippi. A trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche. Under this weather pattern, mainly moderate NE winds are noted, per satellite derived wind data, over the SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are occurring on either side of the trough axis while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are in general 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 5 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas will occur into Fri along the periphery of building high pressure over the southeastern United States. An increasing pressure gradient between this ridge, multiple tropical waves moving through the Caribbean Sea, and persistent troughing over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over central and eastern portions of the basin this weekend. By early next week, moderate to fresh E winds will spread westward through the western Gulf, with locally rough seas in E swell developing over the southeastern Gulf by Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 71W while another tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. Recent scatterometer data indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh trades over the south- central part of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the waters E of 75W and over the NW Caribbean NW of a line from the Island of Youth to the Gulf of Honduras, including the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is moving across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, a tropical wave currently spans from south of Hispaniola through western Venezuela; this wave will progress westward over the next few days, reaching the western Caribbean Fri night into Sat. A second tropical wave, currently approaching the Lesser Antilles, will enter the Caribbean Sea tonight and progress westward through this weekend. A tightening pressure gradient between building high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and troughing over the Caribbean will support fresh trades and building seas across much of the basin tonight into early next week following these tropical waves. Periods of strong E winds and rough seas will be possible off the coast of Colombia each afternoon and night through Sun. E swell associated with the increased trade winds will impact the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands by this evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N61W and continues SW to near the easternmost tip of Cuba where a trough is analyzed. A few showers are along and ahead the frontal boundary. The front is connected to a deepening low pressure system located N of Bermuda. Recent scatterometer satellite data confirms a large area of fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front, covering the waters N of 25N E of front to about 54W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. N of 28N W of front to about 68W, fresh to locally strong W to NW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail. A ridge is in the wake of the front and covers the Florida State and the Bahamas. Strong high pressure of 1036 mb situated NW of the Azores near 42N36W dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic. An area of mainly fresh NE to E winds is noted per scatterometer data N of the ITCZ to about 13N between 43W and 50W due to the pressure gradient between high pressure to the N of lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas to 8 ft are seen within these winds. Elsewhere across the Atlantic and E of 60W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to strong winds associated with the front will diminish tonight into Fri. Rough seas related to the above mentioned deepening low pressure will continue north of 27N and east of 72W before slowly diminishing through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will occur east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate this weekend. A weak cold front will move through the waters off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas tonight into Fri, supporting moderate NE winds through this weekend. Looking ahead, increasing NE winds and building swell is expected west of 55W and north of the Greater Antilles early next week as a strong front moves through the waters off the east coast of Florida. $$ GR