555 
AXNT20 KNHC 251033
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa this morning. The
wave extends from 08N to 19N with axis just E of the Cape Verde
Islands near 18W. The wave is moving at 5-10 kt and there is no
significant convection associated with it. 

A tropical wave is just E of the Windward Islands extending south
of 15N with axis near 58W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No 
significant convection is found near this feature. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending south of 18N
with axis near 74W, moving westward around 10 kt. There is no 
significant convection near this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
 
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast, 
then continues southwestward to near 11N18W. The ITCZ extends 
westward from 10N20W across 09N36W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 19W
and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends across the Gulf being anchored by a
1019 mb high centered just S of the Florida Panhandle. This
feature is supporting gentle to moderate E winds over the SE
basin, including the Florida Straits, and NE winds of the same
speed in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and slight
seas are elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and slight to 
moderate seas will continue across the basin through Sat evening 
under the influence of a broad surface ridge. The pressure 
gradient across the region is forecast to increase afterwards, and
winds will reach moderate to fresh speeds over the E half of the 
Gulf, prevailing through Tue night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central basin while a second
tropical wave approaches the Windward Islands this morning.
Surface ridging building in the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake
of a front which tail reaches the Winward Passage is supporting
fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean where seas are 5
to 8 ft, highest along the coast of Colombia. Surface high
pressure N of the area also supports moderate to fresh trades in
the E and NW Caribbean where seas are slight to moderate.
Otherwise, the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough is
generating heavy showers and tstms over the Costa Rica and Panama
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently moving across the 
central basin will move across the western Caribbean today through
Sat and exit the basin Sat evening. A second tropical wave just E
of the Lesser Antilles will move into the E Caribbean Sea today 
and reach the central basin by Sat evening. High pressure and 
associated ridging will prevail N of the area and along with lower
pressures associated with the passage of the tropical waves and 
the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will support 
fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean through Sun 
night. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds 
and prevail through Tue night. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
forecast for the NW Caribbean the entire forecast period. 
Otheriwse, moderate to fresh trades in the E Caribbean will 
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 23N64W where it stalls and
continue to the Windward Passage. The front is supporting
scattered moderate convection over the Hispaniola adjacent waters
and N of 20N ahead of the front to 51W. Rough seas to 10 ft
follow the front, affecting the waters N of 29N between the front
and 68W. Surface ridging continues to build in the wake of this
front and is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and
moderate seas over the remainder SW N Atlantic waters. The
remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of
the Azores High and associated ridge, which is supporting moderate
to fresh NE to E winds E of 35W and gentl to moderate E winds over
the central subtropical waters. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move E of the 
area Sat, and rough seas to 10 ft affecting the offshore waters N 
of 29N and E of 68W will subside. Surface ridging will continue to
build in the wake of the front and ahead of the next cold front 
forecast to sink into the northern offshore waters Sun night into 
Mon. This second front will be followed by fresh to strong NE 
winds and rough seas that will affect the Florida and the Bahamas 
offshore waters through Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE winds
will affect the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the 
Windward Passage through Tue night. 

$$
Ramos