000 AXNT20 KNHC 252107 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Oct 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the High Seas Forecast areas of Agadir and Tarfaya from 26/12 UTC to at least 27/00 UTC. Seas may build to 10 to 14 ft near those areas. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast available at website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near 21W, from 19N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Nearby scattered moderate convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 63W, from 15N southward to across eastern Venezuela, moving west around 15 kt. Some isolated to scattered showers are possible west of the tropical wave to 71W. A tropical wave is moving from the central to the western Caribbean Sea near 77W, from south of 18N near eastern Jamaica to near the Panama-Colombia border, moving west around 10 kt. A combination of the tropical wave, eastern Pacific Ocean extension of the monsoon trough along 09.5N, surface troughing from offshore Belize to offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, along with mid to upper level support is resulting in a large area of numerous moderate isolated strong convection south of 21N and west of 79W. Scattered thunderstorms are also occurring over much of Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 09N33W to 07N56W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north 0f 06.5N to a line from 20N21W to 20N30W to 11N52W between 21W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak trough was captured by earlier ASCAT scatterometer data from near 26N91W to the western Yucatan Peninsula with some scattered showers possible in its vicinity. Otherwise, a broad pressure pattern prevails across the basin. Light to gentle E to SE winds are noted west or 93W, with gentle to moderate NE to E winds east of 93W, locally fresh near the Straits of Florida. Seas are 3 to 4 ft south of 26N and east of 91W, locally around 5 ft in the Straits of Florida, and 3 ft or less elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will develop across southeastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico tonight as a weak front moves southward across the Florida Peninsula. Fresh to strong N to NW winds will occur offshore of Veracruz Sat night and continue into Mon as weak troughing develops over the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas will prevail across the rest of the basin through this weekend. A stronger front is forecast to move off the east coast of Florida early next week, leading to fresh E to SE winds across much of the basin, with the exception of the Bay of Campeche, through the rest of the forecast period. Locally strong SE winds and rough seas will be possible at times east of 85W by the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean and a tropical wave moving from the central to the western Caribbean. Other than those features, a stationary front extends from just north of the Windward Passage to across southeast Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds were noted by earlier ASCAT scatterometer data in the Lee of Cuba to the east of 80W. Fresh to strong winds were also noted offshore NW Colombia from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except light and variable south of 10.5N in the SW Caribbean and offshore Honduras. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the NW and SW Caribbean, and mainly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave, currently analyzed from south- central Jamaica southward through far western Colombia, will continue to move westward today before exiting the basin by Sat night. A second tropical wave located in the eastern Caribbean will reach the central basin on Sat. The tightening pressure gradient between a building ridge to the north, falling pressure in the south-central Caribbean and the passing tropical waves will support moderate to fresh E to NE winds over much of the basin this weekend into early next week. Periods of strong E winds and rough seas will occur off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela into Mon. Winds will diminish to moderate speeds across the central and eastern portions of the basin by Tue, but remain fresh to locally strong downwind of Cuba and through the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the monsoon trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for details on any convection near those features. A pair of cold fronts extends across the SW N Atlantic basin. The eastern front reaches from 31N54W to 23.5N60W to 20.5N70W where it continues as a stationary front across SE Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted by satellite imagery north of 26N and east of the front to 50W, and within 75 nm either side of the front between 55W and 72W. A second, reinforcing front, extends from near Bermuda to 28.5N76W, then curls to the NW near 1021 mb low pressure inland over SE Georgia. No convection is noted with this reinforcing front, south of 31N. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are west of the fronts, locally fresh south of 25N and west of 65W. Seas in northerly swell are 6 to 9 ft across the waters north of 28N between 53W and 70W. To the east, another cold front extends from northern Morocco near 31.5N09.5W to 30N20W to 31N30W. Some scattered showers are possible near the front. Fresh to strong winds are north of the front, while associated seas of 7 to 10 ft are north of 27N between 19W and 43W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the waters north of 20N between Africa and 40W, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the remainder of the open tropical Atlantic waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE to E swell south of 20N between 47W and the islands, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas north of 29N and east of 67W will slowly subside through Sat as a weakening cold front in the central Atlantic progresses eastward. Moderate to locally fresh trades and locally rough seas east of the Lesser Antilles will subside through tonight. Elsewhere, the tightening pressure gradient between building high pressure over the southeastern United States and the passage of two tropical waves in the Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh NE winds across the Florida Straits, the Bahamas and through the Windward Passage this weekend. A strong cold front is forecast to progress southward off the coast of Florida by early Mon, prompting widespread fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas east of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles through the remainder of the forecast period. $$ Lewitsky