000 AXNT20 KNHC 260451 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the High Seas Forecast areas of Agadir and Tarfaya from 26/12 UTC to at least 27/00 UTC. Seas may build to 12-15 ft near those areas. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast available at website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23N, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the trough axis. A tropical wave has been added along 54W, south of 15N, based on wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned along 67W, south of 15N based on wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A SW Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned along 81W, south of 17N based on wave guidance data and satellite imagery. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted west of the wave and south of 17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N16W and continues to 08N27W and to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 09N34W to 09N43W and to 07N54W. The scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 07N and east of 21W and also from 05N to 14N and between 25W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining generally dry conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent over much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring in the SE Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will develop across southeastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Fresh to strong N to NW winds will occur offshore of Veracruz Sat night and continue into Mon as weak troughing develops over the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas will prevail across the rest of the basin through this weekend. A stronger front is forecast to move off the east coast of Florida early next week, leading to fresh E to SE winds across much of the basin, with the exception of the Bay of Campeche, through the rest of the forecast period. Locally strong SE winds and rough seas will be possible at times east of 85W by the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough and divergence aloft in the NW Caribbean continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly west of 80W and the Windward Passage. A strong ridge to the north of the Greater Antilles result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also captured near gale-force NE winds off northern Colombia. Seas of 6-9 ft are found in the south-central Caribbean, while moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave approaching Central America in the western Caribbean is producing strong thunderstorms off the Nicaragua and Honduras coast. It will exit the basin by Sat night. A second tropical wave south of the Mona Passage will continue moving westward across the Caribbean over the next few days. A tightening pressure gradient due to a building ridge to the north and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh E to NE winds over the basin this weekend into early next week. Periods of strong E winds and rough seas will occur off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela through Mon. Winds will diminish to moderate to locally fresh speeds across the central and eastern portions of the basin by Tue. Winds downwind of Cuba will remain fresh to locally strong. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in the NE Atlantic and the Tropical Waves section for information on a tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front enters the Atlantic near 31N53W and extends southwestward to 23N63W, where it becomes a stationary front to SE Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. Fresh southerly winds are present ahead of the front north of 28N and west of 47W. Seas of 6-9 ft are occurring north of 26N and between 48W and 64W. A subtropical ridge over the SE United States dominates the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the Caribbean support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 26N and west of 65W. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 22N38W to 16N43W and scattered showers are evident east of the trough axis. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a 1037 mb high pressure system near the Azores. This ridge forces fresh to strong anticyclonic winds north of 19N and east of 45W. Seas of 6-10 ft are found in these waters, with the highest seas occurring near 30N27W and off Morocco. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas north of 28N and east of 64W will push east of 55W by Sat as a weakening cold front in the central Atlantic progresses eastward. Moderate to locally fresh trades and locally rough seas east of the Lesser Antilles will subside through tonight. Elsewhere, the tightening pressure gradient between building high pressure over the southeastern United States and the passage of two tropical waves in the Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh NE winds across the Florida Straits, the Bahamas and through the Windward Passage this weekend. A strong cold front is forecast to progress southward off the coast of Florida by early Mon, prompting widespread fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas east of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles through the remainder of the forecast period. $$ Delgado