000 AXNT20 KNHC 261007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the High Seas Forecast areas of Agadir and Tarfaya from 26/12 UTC to at least 27/06 UTC. Seas may build to 12-15 ft near those areas. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast available at website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25N, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical is along 55W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 06N to 08N between 53W and 56W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A SW Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 82W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 08N26W to 09N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 11W and 30W and from 07N to 12N between 36W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining generally dry conditions. A trough extends across the central Gulf from 28N89W to 25N89W with scattered thunderstorms noted east of the trough. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent over much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring in the SE Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will persist across most of the Gulf through the weekend. By Monday, a cold front will sink southward and bring fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas to the eastern half of the Gulf. This pattern will continue through most of the week. Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds will briefly occur offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon as weak troughing develops over the Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough and divergence aloft in the NW Caribbean continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly west of 80W to the Gulf of Honduras. A strong ridge to the north of the Greater Antilles combined with lower pressure near Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin. Overnight scatterometer satellite pass also captured near gale- force NE winds off northern Colombia. Seas of 6-10 ft are found in the south-central Caribbean, while moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave approaching Central America in the western Caribbean is producing strong thunderstorms off the Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua coast. Showers and thunderstorms will continue near this area over the next few days. Meanwhile, a strong pressure gradient from the building Atlantic high and lower pressure over Colombia is leading to strong winds in the south- central basin and rough seas. This pattern will persist through early Mon morning. Strong winds are also expected to pulse downwind of Cuba and Windward Passage over the next few days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in the NE Atlantic and the Tropical Waves section for information on a tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front enters the Atlantic near 31N53W and extends southwestward to 23N61W, where it becomes a stationary front to SE Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 20N64W to 24N57W. Scattered moderate convection is present along and within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. Fresh southerly winds are present ahead of the front. Seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of 26N and between 53W and 61W. A subtropical ridge over the SE United States dominates the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the Caribbean support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 26N and west of 65W. In the central and eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 22N38W to 18N42W and scattered showers are evident north and east of the trough axis from 18N to 29N between 30W and 40W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a 1036 mb high pressure system near the Azores. This ridge is bringing fresh to strong anticyclonic winds north of 19N and east of 45W. Seas of 6-10 ft are found in these waters, with the highest seas occurring near 30N27W and off Morocco. This is also bringing NE swell N of 24N and E of 45W, with seas 8 to 10 ft. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, as the cold front pushes eastward and weakens, the rough seas will move out of the offshore waters region by this afternoon. By Mon, a cold front will push southward across the offshore waters through at least midweek. This front, in combination of strong high pressure following it, will bring widespread fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas east of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles through most of the week. $$ AReinhart