000 AXNT20 KNHC 261724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Oct 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the AGADIR and TARFAYA Offshore Zones through 27/0600 UTC. N winds to Force 8 and 12-15 ft seas are forecast. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast available at website: https://wwwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 14N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N east of 30W. A central Atlantic tropical is along 58W, south of 15N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Upper Air sounding data from Santo Domingo and Kingston assisted in the analysis of the wave position. No significant convection is noted with the wave at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Honduras north to 20N and west of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras and coastal Belize. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 12N16W to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends from 08N32W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... 1025 mb high pressures centered over N Florida and inland over the SE United States continue to provide gentle to moderate E to NE winds and 3-5 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will persist across most of the Gulf through the weekend. By Monday, a cold front will sink southward and bring fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas to the eastern half of the Gulf. This pattern will continue through most of the week. Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds will briefly occur offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon as weak troughing develops over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical waves moving across the basin and active convection. Outside of the areas described in the sections above, building subtropical high pressure is now supporting fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, as depicted in this morning's satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 6-9 ft in this region. Fresh NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. Trades in remaining parts of the Caribbean are gentle to moderate, with 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the tropical wave in the Gulf of Honduras will shift west of the basin tonight. Another tropical wave south of the Windward Passage will reach 80W Sun, the Gulf of Honduras Mon, and move west of the area Tue. A third, weaker tropical wave currently approaching Barbados will enter the eastern Caribbean Sun, then dissipate as it move into the central Caribbean Mon. High pressure north of the area will interact with these tropical waves and lower pressure near Colombia to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across mainly the south-central Caribbean into mid week. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will also pulse across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an East Atlantic Gale Warning and the Tropical Waves section for information on tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front extends from 31N51W to 25N58W where a stationary front then continues to the east side of the Windward Passage. Fresh NE winds are analyzed on approaches to and within the Windward Passage. Elsewhere behind the front, N to NE winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 4-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the front. Weather across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic is guided by 1037 mb Azores high pressure. NE winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern Atlantic east of 35W, with gentle to moderate trades analyzed elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft, except in the aforementioned area of moderate to fresh winds where seas are 7-9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, by Mon a reinforcing cold front will push southward across the offshore waters through at least midweek. This front, in combination of strong high pressure following it, will bring widespread fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas east of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles through most of the week. $$ Mahoney