000 AXNT20 KNHC 262106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the AGADIR and TARFAYA Offshore Zones through 27/0300 UTC. N winds to Force 8 and 10 to 15 ft seas are forecast. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast available at website: https://wwwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W, south of 15N to the SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described below. A central Atlantic tropical is along 59.5W, south of 16N to Guyana, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are possible near and just inland of the coast of Guyana. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from just SW of the Windward Passage to western Colombia, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Earlier upper Air sounding data from Santo Domingo and Kingston assisted in the analysis of the wave position. No significant convection over water is noted with the wave at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87.5W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward across portions of Central America, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection over water is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N32W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 10N45W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 18W and 33W, and also from 09N to 15N between 30W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad pressure pattern covers the basin with gentle to moderate winds. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the SE half of the basin, to 6 ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will persist across most of the Gulf through Sun. A cold front will move Mon southward across the eastern Gulf, followed by fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas. This pattern will continue through most of the week. Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds will briefly occur offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon as weak troughing develops over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical waves moving across the basin and active convection. Outside of the areas described in the sections above, building subtropical high pressure is now supporting fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, as depicted in earlier ASCAT satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this region. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage and in the Lee of Cuba where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Trades in remaining parts of the Caribbean are moderate to fresh, with 3 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving into the Gulf of Honduras will shift west of the basin tonight. Another tropical wave south of the Windward Passage will reach 80W Sun, the Gulf of Honduras Mon, and move west of the area Tue. A third, weaker tropical wave currently approaching Barbados will enter the eastern Caribbean Sun, then dissipate as it move into the central Caribbean Mon. High pressure north of the area will interact with these tropical waves and lower pressure near Colombia to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across mainly the south-central Caribbean into mid week. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will also pulse across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an East Atlantic Gale Warning and the Tropical Waves section for information on tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front extends from 31N51W to 23.5N60W then continues as stationary to the north coast of Haiti near the Windward Passage. Scattered thunderstorms are possible within 90-150 nm ahead of the front. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are west of the front, locally fresh near the Windward Passage. Seas are 7 to 9 ft north of 30N between 48W and 55W. Weather across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic is guided by Azores high pressure. Moderate to fresh winds are north of 16N and east of 40W, except fresh to strong from offshore Morocco through the Canary Islands. Seas are 7 to 11 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, large swell following the front near 30N55W will subside through this evening. By Mon, a reinforcing cold front will push southward across the region through at least midweek. This front, in combination of strong high pressure following it, will bring widespread fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas east of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles from late Mon through late Wed. $$ Lewitsky