000 AXNT20 KNHC 271012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is observed from 03N to 13N and between 22W and 36W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, south of 18N and moving westward at around 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted from 14N to 18N between 73W and 79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N26W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 11N45W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad subtropical ridge over the southern United States continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 27N and east of 90W. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted off Veracruz near the trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the SW Gulf of Mexico from 18N to 28N between 90W and 98W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Highest winds and seas are found in the Florida Keys and off Veracruz. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will persist across most of the Gulf through Mon. Winds will increase fresh to strong with moderate to rough seas later on Mon into Mon night. This pattern will continue through most of the week. Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds will briefly occur offshore of Veracruz this afternoon as weak troughing develops over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical waves moving across the basin and active convection. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras, SW Caribbean and Windward Passage. Strong thunderstorms are also noted in the SW Caribbean along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough along the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama coast. Drier conditions are found elsewhere. A broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles continues to force fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas in the south-central basin are 6-10 ft. The strongest winds and seas are found in the south-central Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave south of Jamaica will reach 80W today, the Gulf of Honduras Mon, and move west of the area Tue. A weaker tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean will dissipate as it moves into the central Caribbean by Mon. High pressure north of the area will interact with these tropical waves and lower pressure near Colombia to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Fresh winds and moderate seas will continue in this area through Tue night. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will also pulse across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave moving across the basin and active convection. A stationary front extends from 31N51W to a 1015 mb low pressure near 25N56W to SE Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm ahead of the boundary. Fresh southerly winds are evident ahead of the front to 48W and north of 25N. Seas of 6-8 ft are present north of 25N and between 44W and 57W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite wind data south of 27N and east of 52W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the southern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. The rest of the basin is dominated by a 1035 mb high pressure system near the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW Africa result in fresh to near gale-force anticyclonic winds east of 35W and north of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will linger for several days. By Mon, a reinforcing cold front will push southward across the region through at least midweek. This front, in combination of strong high pressure following it, will bring widespread fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas east of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles from late Mon through late Wed. $$ AReinhart