000 AXNT20 KNHC 271805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Oct 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of gale-force winds from 27/1500 UTC until 28/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the following website, wwmiws.wmo.int and the METAREA 2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 15N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 10N between 20W and 40W. Some of the precipitation is related to the monsoon trough/the ITCZ also. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 16N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond western Panama and southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 08.5N to 11N between 77W and 81W; from 05N to 09N between the tropical wave and 82W; and off the coast of Costa Rica from 08N to 09.5N from 85W eastward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 07N11W, to 06N20W and 05N30W. The ITCZ is along 05N32W 06N46W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 10N between 20W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 11N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level are moving northeastward in the direction of Africa, from the areas of the northern parts of the tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 26N94W 20N92W, through the southern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize, into the NW Caribbean Sea, to 14N81W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N southward from 90W westward. Isolated moderate is in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are moving through the Straits of Florida, and in parts of the SE Gulf. Fresh anticyclonic surface wind flow is in the central/north central Gulf. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will persist across most of the Gulf through Mon. Building high pressure north of the area will support increased winds and seas starting Mon into Mon night, and persisting through most of the week. Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds will briefly occur offshore of Veracruz this afternoon as weak troughing develops over the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 26N94W 20N92W, through the southern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize, into the NW Caribbean Sea, to 14N81W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N northward from 80W westward. Strong NE winds are from 17N northward between SE Cuba and NW Cuba. Strong NE-to-E winds, and near-rough to rough seas, are in the south central sections of the area from 17N southward between 69W and 75W. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from Jamaica westward. Fresh NE-to-E winds are elsewhere from 16N southward between 67W and 80W. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 27/1200 UTC, are: 0.57 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 0.23 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.03 in Merida in Mexico; and 0.01 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A tropical wave southwest of Jamaica will reach 80W today, the Gulf of Honduras Mon, and move west of the area Tue. A weaker tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean will dissipate as it moves into the central Caribbean by Mon. High pressure north of the area will interact with these tropical waves and lower pressure near Colombia to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Fresh winds and moderate seas will continue in this area through Tue night. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will also pulse across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N50W, to a 1012 mb 24N56W low pressure center. A stationary front continues from 24N56W, to 21N66W, and to the Windward Passage. Near-rough to rough seas are from 25N northward between 47W and 60W. Moderate seas are between 60W and 70W. Slight to moderate seas are from 70W westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N northward between 46W and the cold front. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the frontal boundary, and it is within 120 nm to the north and northwest of the frontal boundary. Fresh to moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the waters that are from the frontal boundary westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, cover the areas that are from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 17N northward from the frontal boundary eastward. Rough seas are from 15N northward from 30W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong to near-gale force NE winds are from 18N to 22N from 22W eastward. Mostly strong to some fresh NE-to-E winds are in the remainder of the areas that are from 08N northward from 36W eastward. Strong NE winds are from 02N southward between 40W and 50W. Fresh NE-to-E winds are elsewhere from 20N southward between 35W and 50W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front reaches from 25N55W to the Windward Passage and will dissipate through Mon, ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will move across the region and stall along 20N by Wed. This front, in combination of strong high pressure following it, will bring widespread fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles from late Mon through late thu. $$ MT/ec