000 AXNT20 KNHC 272138 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean: The Meteo-France high seas forecast consists of gale-force winds from 27/1500 UTC until 28/0000 UTC for the areas of Agadir and Tarfaya. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas forecast at wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central tropical Atlantic Ocean near 32.5W, from 15N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 25.5W and 32W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 66W, from 17N southward to across portions of central Venezuela, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is noted with the wave over water. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea near 80.5W, from 18N southward to western Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean south of 11N and west of 77.5W, and from 11N to 20N between the tropical wave axis and 87W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N11.5W to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 06N47W. Other than the convection described with the tropical wave near 32.5W above, no other significant convection is present near the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed in the western Gulf from 26N95W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W. This feature is helping to funnel fresh to strong winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico as seen on earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are up to 6 ft in that area. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are extending westward from the Straits of Florida where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the basin, except 3 ft or less across the majority of the coastal waters from Texas to Florida. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will persist across most of the Gulf through Mon. Building high pressure north of the area will support increased winds and seas starting Mon into Mon night, and persisting through most of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a stationary front extends from near the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica with some scattered showers and thunderstorms near it. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on additional deep convection present in the basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Lee of Cuba and downwind of the Windward Passage, as well as in the south-central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the Lee of Cuba, 6 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave near 80.5W will move west and reach the Gulf of Honduras Mon, then move west of the area Tue. A weaker tropical wave currently south of Puerto Rico will dissipate as it moves into the central Caribbean by Mon. A third tropical wave in the Atlantic will approach the eastern Caribbean by mid week. High pressure north of the area will interact with these tropical waves and lower pressure near Colombia to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through Mon night. Fresh winds and moderate seas will continue in this area through Tue night. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will also pulse across the Windward Passage, and south of Cuba and Hispaniola through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean as issued by Meteo-France. A cold front extends from 31N48W to 1012 mb low pressure near 24N56W. A stationary front continues from the low to the southwest through 21N65W to near the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible within 120-180 nm east of the cold front, as well as within 120 nm either side of the stationary front. Another cold front is analyzed just north of 31N offshore of the Carolinas to northwest of Bermuda. Between the two fronts, broad high pressure prevails with mainly moderate N to NE winds, except fresh south of 25N and west of 65W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mainly northerly swell west of the cold/stationary front. To the east, 1034 mb high pressure is centered near the Azores at 40.5N26W with a ridge extending SW across the waters east of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds are found across the waters north of 13N between the coast of Africa and 40W with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the waters east of the front. Seas are 6 to 10 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate through Mon, ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will move across the region and stall along 20N by Wed. This front, in combination of strong high pressure following it, will bring widespread fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles from late Mon through late Thu. $$ Lewitsky