000 AXNT20 KNHC 280419 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N and between 22W and 34W. A tropical wave has been introduced along 51W, south of 17N based on satellite and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 16N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this trough axis. A SW Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 18N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 15N to 20N and west of 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 07N25W and to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 08N47W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical jet and tropical moisture result in cloudiness over much of the Gulf of Mexico, south of 27N. A few showers are noted in these waters. Generally drier conditions are found north of the area. The subtropical ridge over the eastern United States supports moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the basin, except for lighter winds in the NE and SW Gulf waters. Seas of 3-6 ft are present across the Gulf, except for seas of 1-3 ft in the NE and SW Gulf. For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the work-week. Winds could increase to strong speeds across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Tue through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery in the SW Caribbean Sea, especially south of 12N, affecting Panama, NW Colombia and nearby waters. The pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the eastern United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia, Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea. Building high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Fresh winds and moderate seas will continue in this area through Tue night. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will also pulse across the Windward Passage, and south of Cuba and Hispaniola through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N49W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 24N56W and then to SE Cuba. Scattered showers are observed within 90 nm of the frontal boundary. A broad subtropical ridge over the eastern United States dominates the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong easterly winds south of 27N and west of 70W. A recent scatterometer satellite wind pass show strong NE winds at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas of 5-7 ft are noted south of 29N and west of 65W. Farther east, divergence aloft supports scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 23N and between 36W and 44W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure system near the Azores, forcing fresh to strong anticyclonic winds east of 45W and north of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near 24N56W to the Windward Passage. This front will dissipate through Mon, ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will move across the region and stall along 20N by Wed. Strong high pressure will follow the second front bringing widespread fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles from late Mon through late Thu. $$ Delgado