000
AXNT20 KNHC 281014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude tropical wave is along 35W, south of 15N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed along the wave axis near 10N. 

A tropical wave is along 52W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 68W and extends southward into western Venezuela. A few
showers are near the northern end of the wave axis. 

Another tropical wave has reached the Caribbean plains of 
Nicaragua. Its axis is along 84W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate
convection is present near the wave axis, mainly over SE 
Nicaragua and the NW Caribbean. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 07N25W 
and to 08N43W. No ITCZ is analyzed at this moment. ASide for the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 20W and 31W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1023 mb located over SE Louisiana dominates the 
region supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of
the basin, except for lighter winds near the high pressure center
and in the SW Gulf, where a surface trough is analyzed. Seas of 3
to 6 ft are present across the Gulf, except for seas of 1 to 3 ft
in the NE and SW parts of the region. Multilayer clouds, with 
possible showers, are seen over the Gulf except the NW waters. 
This cloudiness is the result of strong SW winds aloft ahead of 
an upper-level trough that crosses the NW Gulf. 

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure north of the area 
will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most
of the Gulf region through Fri night. Winds could increase to 
strong speeds across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of 
Florida, Tue through Wed night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery 
in the SW Caribbean Sea, especially south of 12N, affecting 
Panama, NW Colombia and nearby waters. The pressure gradient 
between high pressure N of area and the Colombian low supports 
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, 
particularly S of 15N between 70W and 77W, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of 
these winds. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are 
also noted in the Windward Passage, and in the lee of eastern Cuba
with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are 
observed with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate
to locally fresh in the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop 
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift 
northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central
Caribbean Sea. In the mean time, strengthening high pressure north
of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean
through tonight. Fresh winds and moderate seas will continue in 
this area through Wed. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also 
expected in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of 
Cuba most of the week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N49W to a 1012 mb low pressure
located near 25N55W, then continues westward to the Windward 
Passage. Scattered showers are observed within 90 nm of the 
frontal boundary. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
is ahead of the front affecting mainly the waters N of 20N between
35W and 50W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this
convective activity. High pressure follows the front and dominates
the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between these two 
features supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 
7 ft S of 23N and W of 70W, including approaches to the Windward 
Passage. High pressure of 1034 mb located just N of the Azores 
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters E of the 
above mentioned front. Satellite derived wind data provide
observations of strong to near gale force winds near the coast of
Morocco. Meteo France has gale force winds in gusts along the
coast at first across the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya where
seas are in the 9 to 12 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds and seas
of 6 to 9 ft are noted elsewhere N of 10N and E of 40W. Moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas are present in the remainder of 
the area. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strengthening high pressure in the 
wake of the above mentioned stationary front will push the front 
eastward as a cold front, reaching from 31N45W to near the Leeward
Islands by Tue evening. The high pressure will bring an extended 
period of strong winds and rough seas late today through Thursday.
Peak seas of 12 or 13 ft are expected E of the Bahamas Wed through
Thu.

$$
GR