000 AXNT20 KNHC 281742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Strong NE winds are from 08N to 16N between 33W and 41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 500 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 03N to 11N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Little to no deep convective precipitation is related directly to this tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is 12N southward between 80W and the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 74W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau close to 12N16W, to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W, to 05N25W and 06N34W, and along 08N38W 08N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 12N between 06W and 43W; and from 11N to 14N between 56W and 62W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 15N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the middle Texas Gulf coast, to the Brazos Island area of the Texas Gulf coast, through the southern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize, to 17N87W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: upper level SW wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the SE of the line 30N81W 27N90W 21N97W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the SE quadrant and in the NW quadrant. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fresh to some strong anticyclonic wind flow is from 28N southward between 83W and 93W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Strengthening high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through Fri night. Winds will increase to strong speeds across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Tue through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE winds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation from 18N to 22N between 63W and 80W, accompany this front. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the middle Texas Gulf coast, to the Brazos Island area of the Texas Gulf coast, through the southern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize, to 17N87W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N northward from 80W westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is 12N southward between 80W and the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 74W westward. The 70W/71W tropical wave is from 16N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, mostly not related solely to the tropical wave. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward from 83W westward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 17N to 20N from 83W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 11N to 16N between 70W and 80W. Moderate E to SE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 80W eastward. Near-rough to rough seas are and/or have been from the Windward Passage southward between 70W and 81W, during the last 12 hours or so. Moderate seas are from 14N northward from 80W westward. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 28/1200 UTC, are: 1.05 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 0.37 in Trinidad; 0.26 in Guadeloupe; 0.05 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.02 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and in San Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.01 in Curacao. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea. In the meantime, strengthening high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh winds and moderate seas will continue in this area through Wed. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also expected in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Cuba most of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N49W, to a 1012 mb 25N55W low pressure center. A stationary front continues from 25N55W, to 21N60W 20N70W, and to the Windward Passage. Near-rough to rough seas are from 12N northward from 50W eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 75W eastward. Slight seas are from 75W westward. Strong NE winds are within 240 nm to the north of the stationary front between 70W and SE Cuba, and in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the rest of the waters that are from the stationary front northward from 70W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 35W and the stationary front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 16N northward from the stationary front eastward. Strong SE winds are from 26N northward between 35W and 40W. Strong NE winds are from 28N northward between 15W and 28W. Mostly fresh to some moderate anticyclonic winds are elsewhere from 44W eastward from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ northward. Fresh SE winds are from 04N southward between 20W and 33W, and from 03N southward between 37W and 43W. Fresh NE winds are from 01N southward between 43W and 47W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near 24N55W to the Windward Passage. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will push the front eastward as a cold front, reaching from 31N45W to near the Leeward Islands by Tue evening. The high pressure will bring an extended period of strong winds and rough seas late today through Thursday. Peak seas of 12 or 13 ft are expected E of the Bahamas Wed through Thu. $$ MT/era