427 AXNT20 KNHC 282028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1940 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean near 39W, from 15N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. A large are of scattered moderate convection encompasses the area of the tropical wave from 03N to 13N between 23W and 45W. A tropical wave is in the tropical N Atlantic Ocean near 56W, from 17N southward to Suriname, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05.5N to 09.5N between 49W and 61W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 73W, from 17N southward to near the border of Colombia and Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No deep convection is noted with this tropical wave over water. A tropical wave is in the Gulf of Honduras near 87.5W from 17.5N southward to across portions of Honduras, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No deep convection directly related to the tropical wave is present over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 06N36W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N40W to 08N50W. Nearby deep convection is described in the Tropical Waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A trough is analyzed from the west-central Gulf near 23.5N96W to Mexico near 19N92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible south of 24N per recent satellite and lightning data. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are found east of 90W, with gentle to moderate E to SE winds west of 90W, except NW to N winds west of the trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of 28.5N and east of 96W, with mainly seas of 3 ft or less elsewhere. For the forecast, strengthening high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through Fri night. Winds will increase to strong speeds across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Tue through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from near the north coast of Hispaniola through the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica to the NW Caribbean near 17N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the Greater Antilles and within 60-150 nm either side of the front. Meanwhile, numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring south of 12N and west of 78W, with additional activity south of 17N between 74W and 80W. Fresh to locally strong winds are north of the stationary front, with moderate to fresh winds in the central Caribbean between 70W and 80W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft from 10N to 17N between 70W and 82W, with 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere, highest in the Lee of Cuba. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea. In the meantime, strengthening high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh winds and moderate seas will continue in this area through Wed. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also expected in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Cuba most of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N48W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 24.5N54W to along the north coast of Hispaniola to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 20N between 37W and 52W. Additional activity is south of 22N and west of 60W near the stationary front. Mainly moderate NE winds are found west of the front and low, locally fresh on the NW side of the low and from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles. To the east of the front, Azores high pressure dominates. Moderate to fresh winds are found north of 10N and east of 45W with seas of 5 to 8 ft, with locally strong winds north of 26N between the coast of Africa and 40W where seas are 7 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly 4 to 6 ft seas are over the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, strengthening high pressure in the wake of the stationary front will push the front eastward as a cold front, reaching from 31N45W to near the Leeward Islands by Tue evening. The high pressure will bring an extended period of strong winds and rough seas late today through Thursday. Peak seas of 12 or 13 ft are expected E of the Bahamas Wed through Thu. $$ Lewitsky