000 AXNT20 KNHC 291012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A wave is along 42W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 30W and 50W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds on either side of the wave axis from 10N to 15N and between 38W and 45W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands. Its axis is along 59W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. Winds are light near this wave. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 74W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over western Venezuela and northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 07N20W and to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 08N40W and from 08N42W to 08N51W. Most of the convective activity is associated with the tropical wave with axis along 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong high pressure over the northeastern of United States extends a ridge southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The associated pressure gradient supports fresh to strong E winds over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted elsewhere, except in the SW Gulf where light to gentle winds prevail. A surface trough is analyzed in this area. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within the strongest winds building to 7 to 9 ft in the Straits of Florida. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere, expect in the SW Gulf where seas are in 2 to 4 ft range. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, are seen over the Gulf, except across the north waters. This cloudiness is the result of strong SW winds aloft ahead of an upper-level trough that extends from N Florida to the NE Gulf. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, today through at least Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba to about 18N. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Windward Passage, near Cabo Beata in Dominican Republic, and in the south-central Caribbean S of 13N, including the Gulf of Venezuela. These winds are the result of a strong high pressure system centered over the NE of United States. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are in the lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas are observed elsewhere across the basin, with the exception of light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea. In the meantime, strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including also the Mona Passage, most of the week. Seas generated by the strong winds will reach the NE Caribbean passages by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N47W to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 26N52W to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are near the frontal boundary. A partial scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong winds within about 180 nm NW quadrant of the low center. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, remains ahead of the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 20N between 40W and 51W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Strong high pressure of 1036 mb located over the NE of United States follows the front and dominates the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between these two features sustains fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft S of 29N and W of 70W, including approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted N of 29N between 65W and 77W with seas of 6 to 9 ft. High pressure of 1031 mb located just NE of the Azores dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters E of the above mentioned front. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow and moderate seas are noted under the influence of this system. Fresh NE winds are seen between the Canary Islands and near the Western Sahara/Mauritania border. Seas to 8 ft in N swell are reaching the Canary Islands, and most of the waters N of 27N and E of 30W. Elsewhere E of 35W, seas are 5 to 7 ft, except in the lee of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure in the wake of the aforementioned stationary front will push the frontal boundary eastward as a cold front, reaching from 31N45W to near the northern Leeward Islands by this evening. The strong high pressure will bring an extended period of strong winds and rough seas through at least Fri. Peak seas of 12 or 13 ft are expected E of the Bahamas Wed through Fri. $$ GR