000 AXNT20 KNHC 291720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A wave is along 46W, from 03N to 14N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 40W and 52W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh winds west of the wave axis from 07N to 11N and between 46W and 51W. Seas are 7 to 8 ft within these winds. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis S of 15N and along 63W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Only isolated showers are associated with this wave. A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis S of 19N and along 82W, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 79W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 10N15W and continues southwestward to 06N26W to 09N42W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N between 10W and 16W, and from 03N to 12N between 27W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong high pressure over the northeastern of United States extends a ridge southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The associated pressure gradient supports fresh to strong E winds over the Straits of Florida with rough seas to 9 ft, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds elsewhere, except the SW basin where winds are light to gentle. A surface trough prevails in the SW Gulf extending from 23N96W SE to the Bay of Campeche. Seas over the eastern half of the gulf are 5-8 ft while slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida through at least Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad and strong subtropical ridge N of the area and the passage of two tropical waves across the region continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds over the central and NW Caribbean and gentle to moderate easterly winds elsewhere. In the Windward Passage, NE winds are fresh to locally strong. Seas basin-wide are moderate. The remnants of a former front along with mid- to upper-level divergence are supporting scattered showers over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with only isolated showers while a tropica wave along 82W is supporting heavy showers and tstms over the offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the SW Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea. In the meantime, strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including also the Mona Passage, most of the week. Seas generated by the strong winds will reach the NE Caribbean passages by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong high pressure over the northeastern of United States extends a ridge SE into the SW N Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a dissipating stationary front that extends from 28N59W to 28N75W continues to support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of 25N and W of 55W and moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere S of 25N, including the Great Bahama Bank. Corresponding seas to these winds are rough in the 8 to 11 ft range N of 25N and moderate elsewhere. In the central subtropical waters, the tail of a cold front extends to a 1010 mb low near 26N51W then SW to 19N55W. Between the ridge to the west and the low center, winds are fresh to strong from the N to NW and seas are rough to 9 ft. Aside from the winds, the low and associated front continue to support heavy showers N of 22N between 39W and 49W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending from the Azores High covers the E Atlantic subtropical waters, supporting gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure in the wake of the low/front will bring an extended period of strong winds and rough seas to the westwern Atlantic through at least Fri. Peak seas of 13 ft are expected E of the Bahamas Wed through Fri. $$ Ramos