000 AXNT20 KNHC 292144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Oct 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean near 50W, from 14N southward to near the far NNE coast of Brazil, relocated from 46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 46W and 55W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Seas near 66W, from 16N southward to central Venezuela, moving quickly west at 20 to 25 kt. Only isolated showers are associated with this wave. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea near 83.5W, from 19N southward to across far eastern Nicaragua and Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16.5N between 79W and 85.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11.5N16W to 06N22W to 10N44W to 07N51W. No ITCZ is analyzed in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 23W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure analyzed near Upstate South Carolina extends a ridge west-southwestward across the southern United States. Meanwhile a coastal trough is analyzed just offshore the Carolinas to central Florida. The pressure gradient with these features is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds north of the Yucatan Channel and east of 90W along with 5 to 8 ft seas, and moderate to fresh winds north of 25N west of 90W with 4 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere. No significant convection is noted in the Gulf. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad and strong subtropical ridge north of the area and the passage of two tropical waves across the region, described above, continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the central Caribbean and NW Caribbean north of 18N, locally strong through the Windward Passage and in the Lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. For seas, 4 to 7 ft are present north of 11N and west 70W, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. In addition to the convection associated with the two tropical waves as described above, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the waters north of 16.5N partially due to the remnants of a long stalled out frontal boundary which has relatively recently dissipated. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea. In the meantime, strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, most of the week. Seas generated by the strong winds will reach the NE Caribbean passages by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong high pressure over the northeastern of United States extends a ridge SE into the SW N Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, 1008 mb low pressure is located near 25.5N50W along a cold front which reaches from 31N46W through the low to 17.5N58.5W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low and front supports fresh to strong winds across the majority of the waters north of 22N, and south of 22N to the west of 70W including the Windward Passage. Seas are 6 to 10 ft across these same waters, locally to 11 ft near 31N58W. Fresh to strong winds are also north of 22N and east of the low and front to about 38W where numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are present per recent conventional satellite imagery. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending from the Azores High covers the Atlantic waters east of the low and front, supporting gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds, NE to E winds east of 30W, and moderate seas, highest to 8 ft near 14N42.5W. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure in the wake of the low/front will bring an extended period of strong winds and rough seas to the Western Atlantic through at least Fri. Peak seas of 14 ft are expected east of the Bahamas from Wed through the weekend. $$ Lewitsky