000 AXNT20 KNHC 301018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Oct 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 52W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are present near the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 68W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms is near the northern end of the wave axis. Another tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 86W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave extends southward over Honduras y Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N25W and to a 1012 mb low pres near 12N42W to 12N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 06N between 10W and 20W, and from 05N to 10N between 20W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1036 mb high pressure system located near Nova Scotia extends a ridge southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico, supporting fresh to strong easterly winds over much of the basin, particularly N of 23N and E of 93W per recent scatterometer data. Moderate or weaker winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are found across much of the Gulf, except 2 to 4 ft in the SW Gulf. An upper-level low spinning over the NW Gulf is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the west-central waters. Similar convective activity is also noted over the south-central Gulf and in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, today through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba to about 18N, including the Yucatan Channel, in the Windward Passage and the waters between Jamaica and Cuba, and over the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. The strongest winds are the result of the pressure gradient associated with a strong high pressure of 1036 mb located in the vicinity of Nova Scotia. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, the SW part of the basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras. In addition to the convection associated with the two tropical waves as described above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the waters north of 15N partially due to the remnants of a stalled frontal boundary, which recently dissipated. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward over the west-central Caribbean Sea. In the meantime, strong high pressure located north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, most of the week. Seas generated by the strong winds will reach the NE Caribbean passages by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N42W and continues SW to a 1006 mb low pressure located near 26N47W. A cold front extends from the low center to near Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen on satellite imagery ahead of the stationary front mainly N of 25N to about 38W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the frontal boundary to 37W and north of 24N. Gale- force winds are occurring in the area of the strongest convection. A 1036 mb high pressure system situated near Nova Scotia dominates the waters W of the front, including Florida, the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. The tight pressure gradient associated with this system, supports fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the waters W of 55W. A couple altimeter passes indicate seas of 11 to 15 ft N of 26N between 52W and 55W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted elsewhere W of the front. E of the front, a 1027 mb high pressure located well NE of the Azores is in control of the weather pattern across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned strong high pressure will continue to support an extended period of strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic through at least Fri. Peak seas in the 13 to 15 ft range are expected E of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend. $$ GR