000 AXNT20 KNHC 301746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Oct 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 mb low pressure system is located near 27N43W, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low to near 16N60W, and a stationary front extending north of the low center to a 1003 mb low near 40N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 250-300 nm east of the low and both fronts, generally north of 20N and west of 36W. Strong to near-gale force winds are also occurring in this region, with gale-force winds occurring in the areas of strongest convection. The 1006 mb low near 16N60W will gradually become absorbed by the 1003 mb low near 40N39W over the next 24 hours, with gale-force winds also diminishing during this time. Please see the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 53W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are present near the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 70W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms is near the northern end of the wave axis. Another tropical wave is over the far western Caribbean along 87W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave extends southward over Honduras and Nicaragua and into the Eastern Pacific. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring across the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N25W, and then northwestward to a 1012 mb low pres near 13N43W, then west-southwestward to 12N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between the African coast and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring with the surface low near 13N43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1032 mb high pressure system located over the western Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over the northern half of the basin, and gentle to moderate E winds elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are found across much of the Gulf, except 2 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf. An upper-level low spinning over the Gulf is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central waters. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient associated to strong high pressure N of Bermuda will continue to support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, today through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection associated with two waves moving across the basin. In addition to the convection associated with the two tropical waves, scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the waters north of 15N partially due to the remnants of a stalled frontal boundary. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Recent satellite derived wind data provides observations of moderate to fresh E to NE winds across much of the basin. Seas across much of the Caribbean are analyzed at 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, strong high pressure located north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, into the upcoming weekend. Winds in the Mona Passage diminish on Thu. N to NE swell will begin to reach the NE Caribbean passages beginning Thu. This swell is expected to subside late on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in the Central Atlantic. A 1036 mb high pressure system situated near Nova Scotia dominates much of the waters W of the front covered in the Special Features section, including Florida, the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. The strong pressure gradient associated with this system supports fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the waters W of 55W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted closer to the coast of Florida. A large areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms is also observed behind the cold front, generally from 25N southward to the Greater Antilles, between 56W and 72W. For areas E of 35W, a 1027 mb high located well NE of the Azores is in control with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and moderate seas observed under the influence of this system. For the forecast west of 55W, a very tight pressure gradient associated to strong high pressure of 1037 mb centered over Nova Scotia controls the wind regime throughout. This pattern will continue to support an extended period of strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic through at least Fri. Peak seas of 13 to 15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend. $$ Adams