000 AXNT20 KNHC 302201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Oct 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 mb low pressure system is located near 27.5N41.5W, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low to near 20N48W then continuing as a stationary front near 15N60W. A stationary front also extends north-northeastward to beyond 31N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 300-330 nm east of the front and low to the north of 19N/20N. Strong to near-gale force winds are also occurring in this region, with gale-force winds occurring in the areas of strongest convection. The low and the associated gale force winds are forecast to shift north-northeast of the area through early Thu while the low gets absorbed by a larger and deeper low north-northeast of the forecast waters. Please see the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean near 53W, south of 16N and just south of the above mentioned stationary front, drifting west around 5 kt. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the northern half of the tropical wave. A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central Caribbean Sea near 70W from just south of Hispaniola and 17N to across portions of western Venezuela, drifting west around 5 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 15N to 17N between 67W and 74W. A tropical wave is in the far NW Caribbean Sea over the Gulf of Honduras near 87.5W from just south of Cozumel, Mexico near 19N southward to western Honduras, drifting west around 5 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the majority of the western Caribbean west of 76W due to the interaction of the tropical wave with other features both at the surface and aloft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 05N34W to 13N43W to 10N52W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 14N to the east of 30W. Similar convection is from 11N to 14N between 40W and 42.5W due to low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 13N42W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging controls the basin with moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of 22N and east of 93W with seas of 5 to 8 ft, locally strong winds from the Straits of Florida westward. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail elsewhere with 4 to 7 ft seas except 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf, winds to fresh near Yucatan Channel. An upper-level low spinning over the Gulf is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central waters. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient associated to strong high pressure north of Bermuda will continue to support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through Fri night, then mostly in the Straits of Florida through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection associated with two waves moving across the basin. In addition to the convection associated with the two tropical waves, scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the waters north of 14N partially due to the remnants of a stalled frontal boundary. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the majority of the basin north of 16N including south of Hispaniola, through the approach to the Windward Passage, and in the Lee of Cuba. Mainly mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the basin, except gentle to moderate offshore Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, strong high pressure located north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, into the upcoming weekend. Winds in the Mona Passage diminish on Thu. Large N to NE long period swell will begin to reach the NE Caribbean passages beginning Thu. This swell is expected to subside late on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in the Central Atlantic. High pressure situated well north of the SW N Atlantic dominates much of the waters west of the front/low covered in the Special Features section, including Florida, the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. The strong pressure gradient associated with this system supports fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the waters north of 20N and west of 50W. Seas of 8 to 13 ft are noted across much of the same area, highest just northeast of the Bahamas and southeast of Bermuda. A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is also observed behind the front, generally from 25N southward to the Greater Antilles. For areas east-southeast of the front, an Azores high and ridge control marine conditions with mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a very tight pressure gradient associated to strong high pressure of 1033 mb near Nova Scotia controls the wind regime throughout. This pattern will continue to support an extended period of strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic through at least Fri. Peak seas of 13 to 16 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend. Active weather will impact the water S of 26N and E of the Bahamas into the weekend. Marine interests over these waters should take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions. Stay updated with the latest forecasts and Tropical Weather Outlooks. $$ Lewitsky