000 AXNT20 KNHC 311011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N37W to 20N47W where it becomes a stationary front to near 15N60W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 23N and east of the front to about 35W. Satellite-derived wind data indicate strong to minimal gale-force southerly winds ahead of the front, particularly N of 27N E of the front to 37W. Seas are 10 to 14 ft within these winds. The gale-force winds are forecast to shift north of the area early this morning while the frontal boundary moves eastward. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front. Please see the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 53W/54W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms are present near the northern end of the wave axis. A second tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 73W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over western Venezuela and northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N25W and to 06N41W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 10N between 10W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high pressure located N of Bermuda extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf region, supporting fresh to strong easterly winds over the eastern half of the basin, and moderate to fresh winds over the western Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche where mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are found across much of the Gulf, with the exception of 2 to 4 ft in the SW Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted N of 22N and W of 88W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient associated to strong high pressure N of Bermuda will continue to support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through Fri night, then mostly in the Straits of Florida through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba to about 18N, Windward Passage the waters between Jamaica and Cuba, and south of Hispaniola to 15N. Fresh winds are observed in the Mona Passage and in the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. The strongest winds are the result of the pressure gradient associated with a 1029 mb high pressure located N of Bermuda. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, the SW part of the basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the SW Caribbean and northern Colombia while another area of showers and thunderstorms is noted just south of Puerto Rico. Upper diffluence supports this strong convection. Abundant tropical moisture and favorable atmospheric conditions will persist over the next several days, supporting periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding across portions of Central America and the Greater Antilles. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of the week. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, strong high pressure located north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, into the upcoming weekend. Winds will diminish in the Mona Passage by early Fri morning. Large N to NE long period swell will begin to reach the NE Caribbean passages starting Thu. The swell is expected to subside late on Sat. Active weather will impact the majority of the basin into the weekend. Marine interests over these waters should take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions. Stay updated with the latest forecasts and Tropical Weather Outlooks. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As previously mentioned, a cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters near 31N37W and continues SW to 20N47W where it becomes stationary to near 15N60W. A Gale Warning is in effect ahead of the front in the southerly wind flow. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. High pressure of 1029 mb located N of Bermuda dominates the waters W of the front, including Florida, the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. The tight pressure gradient associated with this system, supports fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the waters W of 55W. Several altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 13 ft E of the Bahamas. E of the front, a 1019 mb high pressure situated W of the Canary Islands near 29N21W is in control of the weather pattern across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow and moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system. A weak 1012 mb low pressure area is near 13N42W is producing some shower activity. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of the low with fresh winds east of the center. A large area of multilayer clouds, with embedded showers and thunderstorms is affecting the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This convective activity is ahead of an upper-level trough that crosses Hispaniola. Abundant tropical moisture in place and the presence of the upper-level trough will result in the risk of heavy precipitation and severe weather. For the forecast west of 55W, a very tight pressure gradient associated to strong high pressure located N of Bermuda controls the wind regime throughout. This pattern will continue to support an extended period of strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic through at least Fri. Peak seas of 13 to 16 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Sun. Active weather will impact the water S of 26N and E of the Bahamas into the weekend as a low pressure could develop in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Gale conditions may occur Fri night into the upcoming weekend due to the pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the north. Marine interests over these waters should take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions. Stay updated with the latest forecasts and Tropical Weather Outlooks. $$ GR