000 AXNT20 KNHC 010541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front passes through 31N33W, to 24N40W. A shear line continues from 24N40W, to 20N49W 18N58W. A surface trough is along 22N63W 23N74W, to 25N81W at the southern tip of Florida. A second surface trough is along 24N39W 20N44W. Rough seas cover the waters that are from the cold front and the shear line northward, from Hispaniola northward, and from the Bahamas northward. A 1027 mb high pressure center is close to 35N63W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the frontal boundary/the shear line. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from the shear line and 18N northward from 43W westward. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from the frontal boundary and the shear line northward and northwestward. Strong southerly winds are within 120 nm to the east of the cold front from 26N northward. The sea heights will continue to build on Friday. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, from the frontal boundary/the shear line, northward and northwestward, for the next 48 hours or so. The sea heights will become lower, gradually, early next week. Heavy rainfall will be possible through the weekend, from the Virgin Islands westward to the north and northeast parts of the Greater Antilles and to eastern Cuba, as the front meanders in the region. This may lead to flash floods and potential landslides in the nearby island nations through the weekend. Current precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N to 20N between 50W and 57W in the Atlantic Ocean; and in the Caribbean Sea/in the Atlantic Ocean from 17N to 23N between 58W and 71W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N northward from 30W westward; and from 14N to 20N between 46W and 70W in parts of the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and weather bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local weather bureau, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: some nearby precipitation also is close to the nearby shear line. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N to 20N between 50W and 57W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from Jamaica southward, moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough is along 11N75W 11N80W, beyond northern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward from 75W westward. A tropical wave is along 93W, from 18N in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon passes through the coastal plains of Guinea close to 11N15W, to 10N20W. The ITCZ is along 10N20W 08N30W. Broad surface low pressure is from 10N southward between 30W and 40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 75 nm to 125 nm on either side of 07N35W 07N33W 06N30W 01N29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 11N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 22N96W, through the southern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize, to 15N81W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. An inland frontal boundary is in Texas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm of the coast of Louisiana. Isolated moderate is in the Texas coastal waters. Near-rough to rough seas are in the Straits of Florida. Slight to moderate seas are from 23N southward from 90W westward in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 27N southward from 84W eastward. Mostly moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A tight pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through Fri night, then mostly in the Straits of Florida through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface low pressure that is near Puerto Rico is producing widespread cloudiness and rainshowers in the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, in the adjacent waters of the Atlantic Ocean, and in the NE Caribbean Sea. Slow development of this system is possible during the next 2 days to 3 days, as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. This system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area that is in the Caribbean Sea. Locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days, from the northern Leeward Islands westward to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 22N96W, through the southern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize, to 15N81W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N northward from Jamaica westward. Moderate to near-rough seas are and/or have been in the same area of the precipitation. Strong NE winds are from 18N northward between the Windward Passage and 86W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward between 66W and 75W. Slight seas are from 14N83W 13N71W 14N65W southward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE to E winds are from 70W eastward; elsewhere from 16N northward between 70W and 81W; and elsewhere in the NW corner of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the western Caribbean. Meanwhile, high pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, into the upcoming weekend. Large N to NE long period swell will reach the NE Caribbean passages starting Thu, then subsiding late on Sat. Active weather will impact the majority of the basin into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the cold front, the shear line, and the strong to near gale-force winds/the rough seas. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 15N44W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the areas that are from 10N to 18N between 39W and 52W. Moderate seas, and mostly moderate and some fresh winds, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, away from the frontal boundary/the shear line. A tight pressure gradient associated to high pressure centered N of Bermuda will support strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic through the next few days. Peak seas of 13 to 16 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Sun, subsiding slightly early next week. Strong to near gale force E winds will prevail over the waters S of 25N and E of the Bahamas through early next week. $$ mt/al