000 AXNT20 KNHC 010901 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Nov 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 34N63W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and low pressure in the Caribbean is supporting fresh to near-gale force winds and high seas across most of the waters W of 55W. Seas will continue to build today, with a large area of 12-15 ft seas occurring from 55W to the Bahamas between 20N and 26N starting early today and lasting through the weekend. Seas will gradually subside early next week. In addition, a persistent upper- level trough along with abundant deep tropical moisture will generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that may produce heavy rainfall through the weekend from the Virgin Islands westward across portions of the Greater Antilles. This may lead to flash flooding and potential landslides across these islands through the weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and weather bulletins issued by your local weather agency for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 32W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 32W and 37W. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 58W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. No significant convection is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic near 11N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 08N30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N between 20W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface troughing prevails over the western Gulf, extending into the NW Caribbean while high pressure prevails over the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over the SE Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere E of 90W. W of 90W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 5-6 ft elsewhere E of 90W. W of 90W, seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through tonight, then mostly in the Straits of Florida through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 34N63W. Troughing prevails over the NW Caribbean, while the EPAC monsoon trough extends across the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, and the areas of low pressure are supporting fresh to strong winds N of 16N and W of 70W. Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Active weather will impact the majority of the basin into the weekend with locally heavy rains possible over portions of the western and central Caribbean associated to the area of low pressure. Meanwhile, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, into the upcoming weekend. Large N to NE long period swell over the NE Caribbean passages will subside late on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about rough seas, and the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the Greater Antilles. High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 34N63W. South of this high pressure center, fresh to strong winds, locally near gale- force, prevail, with seas in the 8-12 ft range. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N31W to 21N43W, with a shearline extending to the Lesser Antilles. Aside from the area discussed above, moderate to fresh winds prevail W of the front. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over these waters. Fresh to strong winds prevail N of 25N within 90 nm east of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a tight pressure gradient associated to high pressure centered N of Bermuda will support strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic through the next few days. Peak seas of 13 to 15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Sun, subsiding slightly early next week. Strong to near gale force E winds will prevail over the waters S of 25N and E of the Bahamas, spreading westward early next week. $$ AL