000 AXNT20 KNHC 011748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1748 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure centered near 33N64W, and low pressure in the Caribbean is supporting fresh to near-gale force winds and high seas across most of the waters W of 50W. A large area of seas have built to 12-15 ft, occurring from 55W to the Bahamas between 20N and 26N. These seas will last through the weekend and seas will gradually subside early next week. In addition, a surface trough along with abundant deep tropical moisture will generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that may produce heavy rainfall through the weekend from the Virgin Islands westward across portions of the Greater Antilles. This may lead to flash flooding and potential landslides across these islands through the weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and weather bulletins issued by your local weather agency for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 34W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 30W and 39W. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 58.5W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. No significant convection is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic near 12N16.5W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 09N30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 18W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 26N west of 90W ahead of a stationary front over the Texas coast. Surface troughing prevails over the Yucatan Peninsula, extending into the NW Caribbean while high pressure prevails over the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over the SE Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere E of 90W. W of 90W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 5-7 ft elsewhere E of 90W. W of 90W, seas are in the 3- 5 ft range. For the forecast, a broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward along 33N into the SE U.S. The associated tight pressure gradient to the south and southwest will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds and higher seas are expected in the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through tonight, then mostly in the Straits of Florida through the upcoming weekend. Winds across the basin will begin to veer SE to S early Sun into early next week as a cold front slowly approaches SE Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is producing scattered moderate convection from north of Venezuela to south of Puerto Rico between 64W and 70W. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 33N64W. Troughing prevails over the NW Caribbean, while the EPAC monsoon trough extends across the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, and the areas of low pressure are supporting fresh to to locally strong winds N of 16N and W of 70W. Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Active weather will impact the majority of the basin into the weekend with locally heavy rains possible over portions of the western and central Caribbean associated with the area of low pressure interacting with an upper level trough lingering across the north central basin. Meanwhile, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, into the upcoming weekend. Large N to NE long period swell over the NE Caribbean passages will subside late on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about rough seas, and the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the Greater Antilles. High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 33N64W. South of this high pressure center, according to the most recent ASCAT data, fresh to strong winds, locally near gale-force, prevail, with seas in the 9-14 ft range. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N29W to 21N41W, with a shearline extending to 18N55W then a trough extends to the Lesser Antilles. This trough is generating numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 18N to 23.5N between 48W and 69W. Aside from the area discussed above, moderate to fresh winds prevail W of the front. Seas are in the 9-12 ft range over these waters, with the exception of seas to 15 ft north of 30N between 41W and 47W. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail N of 26N within 90 nm east of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a broad high pressure ridge extends across the western Atlantic along about 33N. The associated tight pressure gradient south of the ridge will support strong easterly winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic S of 25N, from 50W through the Straits of Florida through the next few days, gradually shifting westward Sat through Mon. Peak seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Sun, subsiding into early next week. Peak winds to near gale-force prevail between 60W and 65W today and will gradually shift westward to the SE Bahamas through Sun before subsiding. Very active weather should be expected across these waters E of 70W through Sun. $$ KRV