000 AXNT20 KNHC 012338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure centered near 33N63W and low pressure in the Caribbean is supporting fresh to near-gale force winds and high seas across most of the waters W of 50W and north of the Greater Antilles. A large area of seas have built to 12 to 15 ft from 55W to the Bahamas between 20N and 26N. These seas will last through the weekend before gradually subsiding early next week. In addition, a surface trough with abundant deep tropical moisture will generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that may produce heavy rainfall through the weekend from the Virgin Islands westward across portions of the Greater Antilles. This may lead to flash flooding and potential landslides across these islands through the weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and weather bulletins issued by your local weather agency for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic is near 36W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N between 36W and 40W. The axis of a tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is near 59W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. No significant convection is occurring with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic near 12N16W to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to 09N30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 13N between 22W and 34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Widely scattered convection is depicted north of 26N and west of 90W along a trough that extends from 27N96W to the southwestern coast of Louisiana. Surface troughing prevails over the Yucatan Peninsula while ridging prevails over the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong E winds through the Florida Straits and moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere E of 85W. West of 85W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail. Seas are in the 7 to 8 ft range over the Florida Straits, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere E of 85W. W of 85W, seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, a broad ridge will form across the western Atlantic westward into the SE U.S, and low pressure will form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The associated tight pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through this weekend and into early next week. Fresh to strong E winds and higher seas are expected in the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, at times this weekend and early next week. Winds across the basin will begin to veer SE to S Sun into early next week as a cold front slowly approaches SE Texas. Strong SE winds will be possible ahead of the front late Sun through Mon north of 24N and west of 92W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough from 16N69W northeastward through the Mona Passage is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection north of 17N and east of 67W. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 33N63W, troughing prevails over the NW Caribbean and the EPAC monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds N of 16N and W of 70W over the northern and western Caribbean. Seas over this area are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean. Meanwhile, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola including the Mona Passage through this weekend. Large N to NE long period swell over the NE Caribbean passages will subside late on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about strong winds and rough seas over the western Atlantic, as well as the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the Greater Antilles. A 1026 mb high is centered near 33N63W. A cold front extends from 31N26W to 21N56W and troughing continues southwestward through the Mona Passage into the Caribbean. This trough is generating numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 18N to 23.5N between 50W and 66W. Aside from the area discussed above, moderate to fresh NW to NE winds prevail west of the front. Seas are in the 9 to 12 ft range over these waters, with the exception of seas to 15 ft north of 29N between 35W and 48W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a broad ridge will form across the western Atlantic westward into the SE U.S, and low pressure will form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The associated tight pressure gradient will support strong E winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic S of 27N, from 50W through the Straits of Florida through the next few days, gradually shifting westward Sat through Mon. Peak seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Sun, subsiding into early next week. Peak winds to near gale-force will prevail between 60W and 65W tonight and will gradually shift westward to the SE Bahamas through Sun before subsiding. Very active weather should be expected across these waters E of 70W through Sun. Looking ahead, the trough of low pressure currently located near Puerto Rico could see slow development during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. $$ ADAMS