000 AXNT20 KNHC 020936 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the central and western Caribbean as well as the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean during the next few days, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Atlantic gale warning and rough to very rough seas: The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 33N62W and low pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to near-gale force winds and high seas across most of the waters W of 50W and north of the Greater Antilles. A small area of gale force winds was depicted on the overnight scatterometer pass between 60W and 65W. Within this large area of strong to near- gale winds, a rough to very rough seas in the 12 to 15 ft range are over the waters from 20N to 26N between 55W and the Bahamas. The gale force winds are expected to diminish to near-gale this morning. Rough to very rough seas will gradually subside into early next week. In addition, an upper- level trough along with abundant deep tropical moisture will generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that may produce heavy rainfall through the weekend from the Virgin Islands westward across portions of the Greater Antilles. This may lead to flash flooding and potential landslides across these islands through the weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and weather bulletins issued by your local weather agency for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 36W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 35W and 43W. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 60W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the northern portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 07N37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 24W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the SE U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough across southern Mexico and the northern portion of Central America is supporting fresh to strong winds over the SE Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh winds across the remainder of the basin. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected across most of the Gulf region through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds will develop in the Straits of Florida late Sun, and continue through the middle of next week. Winds across the western part of the basin will begin to veer SE early Sun into early next week as a cold front slowly approaches E Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1024 mb high pressure area is centered near 33N62W, while a 1007 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 12N81W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds over the Windward Passage as well as in the lee of Cuba. Moderate winds are elsewhere N of 16N and W of 70W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-7 ft range, reaching 8 ft in the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is east of the low center where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Light to gentle winds generally prevail over the remainder of the Caribbean waters E of 75W, with seas in the 2-4 ft range. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge N of the area and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, this weekend. Large N to NE long period swell over the NE Caribbean passages will subside late today. A broad area of low pressure is over the southwestern Caribbean. Gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, active weather with locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the western and central Caribbean associated with the area of low pressure. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a gale warning and rough to very rough seas over the western Atlantic, as well as the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the Greater Antilles. A broad high pressure ridge extends across the western Atlantic along about 33N, anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure center near 33N62W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting a large area of strong to near gale force winds from 21N to 26N between 50W and the Bahamas. Seas over these waters are in the 10 to 15 ft range. A stationary front extends from 31N26W to 21N39W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N within 120 nm E of the low. Fresh to locally strong winds are over these waters. A 1016 mb high is centered near 27N20W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Aside from the seas discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above, N to NE swell is generating seas greater than 8 ft over the waters W of a line from 31N23W to 15N44W, with an area of 12 to 15 ft seas N of 27N between 33W and 48W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near gale easterly winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic S of 25N from 55W through the Straits of Florida will prevail over the next few days, gradually shifting westward through Tue. Peak seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Tue, subsiding into the middle of next week. Peak winds reaching minimal gale- force between 60W and 65W will diminish to near gale force this morning. The area of strong to near- gale winds will gradually shift westward to the SE Bahamas through Sun, then shift northward across the NW zones early next week. Very active weather should be expected across these waters E of 70W through Sun. $$ AL