000 AXNT20 KNHC 021736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97): A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday. There is a HIGH chance for tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Atlantic Significant Swell: Strong to near-gale force E winds continue north of a shear line, from 20N to 26N between 50W and 70W. Seas are 12-16 ft in this area, in primary E swell with a period of 10 seconds. The band of strong E winds will expand westward and then shift northward into early next week, with peak seas decreasing to 12-13 ft east of the Bahamas. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Greater Antilles Heavy Rainfall: An upper-level trough along with abundant deep tropical moisture will generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that may produce heavy rainfall through the weekend from the Virgin Islands westward across portions of the Greater Antilles. This may lead to flash flooding and potential landslides across these islands through the weekend. Please refer to information from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 40W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 62W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted across the E Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 06N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 25W and 36W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico is positioned within the western periphery of the subtropical Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda. Gentle to moderate W winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail across most of the basin. However, fresh to locally strong E winds in the Straits of Florida and SE Gulf are building seas to 5-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region will continue through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds will develop in the Straits of Florida late Sun, and continue through the middle of next week. Winds across the western part of the basin will begin to veer SE early Sun into early next week as a cold front slowly approaches E Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an area of low pressure that could develop into a tropical cyclone. Fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are analyzed in the Windward Passage, Lee of Cuba, and NW Caribbean. In the Mona Passage and other Atlantic Passages, seas are 7-9 ft due to arriving swell from the western Atlantic. Satellite scatterometer data from this morning depicted light to gentle trades across the remaining parts of the Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate cyclonic winds are noted in the SW Caribbean near the aforementioned area of low pressure, with 4-6 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N west of 81W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure ridge N of the area and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, this weekend. Large N to NE long period swell over the NE Caribbean passages will subside late today. A broad area of low pressure is over the southwestern Caribbean. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday. There is a HIGH chance for tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours and 7 days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT and GREATER ANTILLES HEAVY RAINFALL. A cold front extends from 31N25W to 24N33W, where a stalled front then extends to 20N42W. A shear line, mentioned in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, continues from 20N42W to 20N66W. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on the shear line and associated seas. A surface trough extends from NE to SW across the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 24N between 50W and 67W. The area of seas greater than 8 ft is north of 15N between 24W and 76W, due to the described fronts and propagating swell. Scatterometer data from this morning indicates moderate to fresh N to NE winds in this same area. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure along 33N and an old frontal zone lingering along 20N will support strong easterly winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic S of 25N, from 55W through the Straits of Florida over the next few days, gradually shifting westward through Tue. Peak seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Tue, subsiding into the middle of next week. Peak winds near gale- force between 60W and 70W will gradually shift westward to the SE Bahamas through Sun, then shift northward and expand across the NW zones early next week. Very active weather should be expected across these waters E of 70W through Sun. $$ Mahoney