000 AXNT20 KNHC 022339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97): A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday. There is a HIGH chance for tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Atlantic Significant Swell: Strong to near-gale force E winds continue north of a shear line, from 20N to 26N between 50W and 75W. Seas are 12-16 ft in this area, in primary E swell with a period of 10 seconds. The band of strong E winds will expand westward toward the Bahamas on Sun and then shift northward toward 30N early next week, with peak seas decreasing to 12-13 ft east of the Bahamas. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Greater Antilles Heavy Rainfall: A trough of low pressure just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds. Slow development of this system is possible during the day or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By early next week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea. Numerous showers and thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall through the weekend from the Virgin Islands westward across portions of the Greater Antilles. This may lead to flash flooding and potential landslides across these islands through the weekend. Please refer to information from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave in the central Atlantic is near 41W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is near 65W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 06N41W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 15N between 23W and 48W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico is positioned within the western periphery of the subtropical Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring across northern and western portions of the basin. East of 88W and south of 25N, fresh E to NE winds and building seas of 5-7 ft are noted. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will occur across southern and eastern portions of the basin through Sun. By Sun afternoon, winds will veer to the S and SE ahead of a front moving through Texas. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop west of 90W Sun night with the exception of the Bay of Campeche. Rough seas of 8-10 ft will impact areas north of 24N and west of 92W by late Sun night, with seas slowly diminishing by midweek. Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will develop in the Straits of Florida late Sun, and continue through the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on AL97. Fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are analyzed in the Windward Passage, Lee of Cuba, and NW Caribbean. In the Mona Passage and other Atlantic Passages, seas are 7-9 ft due to arriving swell from the western Atlantic. Light to gentle trades are present across the remaining parts of the Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate cyclonic winds are noted in the SW Caribbean near the aforementioned area of low pressure with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure ridge N of the area and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, this weekend. Large N to NE long period swell over the NE Caribbean passages will subside Sun. Away from the potential tropical development of AL97 in the central and western Caribbean, moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT and GREATER ANTILLES HEAVY RAINFALL. A cold front extends from 31N24W to 23N35W, where a stalled front then extends to 20N42W. A shear line, mentioned in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, continues from 20N42W to 19N66W. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on the shear line and associated seas. A surface trough extends from NE to SW across the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 24N between 48W and 66W. Seas greater than 8 ft are noted north of 14N between 22W and 76W, due to the described fronts and propagating swell, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted in this same area. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure along 33N and an old frontal zone lingering along 20N will support strong easterly winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic S of 25N, from 55W through the Straits of Florida over the next few days, gradually shifting westward through Tue. Peak seas of 12-15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Tue, subsiding into the middle of next week. Peak winds near gale-force between 60W and 70W will gradually shift westward to the SE Bahamas through Sun, then shift northward and expand across the NW zones early next week. Very active weather should be expected across these waters E of 70W through Sun. $$ ADAMS