000 AXNT20 KNHC 030557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA (INVEST-AL97)... A 1006 mb low pressure center is close to 12N79W. Fresh to strong SW winds are from the low pressure center southeastward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 330 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward from 70W westward. Gradual development of this system is expected. It is likely for a tropical depression to form within the next couple of days. The forecast movement is generally northward to northwestward in the central and western sections of the Caribbean Sea. Locally heavy rains are possible in parts of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean Sea, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Anyone who has interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. The chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours is high. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL... A cold front passes through 31N22W, to 22N30W, and to 20N45W. A shear line continues from 20N45W, to 19N51W 18N58W 21N65W. Strong to near gale-force easterly winds, and rough to very rough seas, are from 22N44W 27N58W 28N74W to the shear line and 20N74W. Rough seas are also from 14N to 20N between 50W and 60W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from the shear line to 22N between 49W and 52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 18N to 23N between 47W and 54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between 56W and 70W, in parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. A 66W/67W tropical wave is in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. Please, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...GREATER ANTILLES HEAVY RAINFALL... A surface trough is along 28N64W 22N67W, crossing the Dominican Republic to 17N72W in the north central Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 21N to 24N between 60W and 64W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 17N to 25N between 56W and the surface trough. Slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two. The forecast movement is westward near the Greater Antilles. This system is expected to be absorbed into the Caribbean Sea low pressure center (INVEST-AL97) by early next week. Locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days, in the Leeward Islands, in Puerto Rico, in Hispaniola, in eastern Cuba, and in the SE Bahamas. Flash floods and potential landslides are a threat in these islands through the weekend. Please, refer to information from your local weather bureau office for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. A separate surface trough is along 49W/50W from 08N southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 13N between 40W and 55W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 16N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between 56W and 70W, in parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea close to 09N13W, to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W, to 05N25W, 07N33W 10N39W 10N43W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N to 06N between 09W and 22W, and from 03N to 07N between 27W and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the areas from 16N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Straits of Florida, and from 26N to 29N from 85W eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 25N to 27N between 91W and 94W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are from 25N southward from 90W eastward. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 18N95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the northern parts of Belize, to 15N82W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N southward. A broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the SE U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough across southern Mexico and the northern portion of Central America will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through Mon. Fresh to strong E winds will develop in the Straits of Florida late Sun, and continue through the middle of next week. Winds across the western part of the basin will veer SE tonight into early next week as a cold front slowly approaches E Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the INVEST-AL97 12N79W 1006 mb low pressure center. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 18N95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the northern parts of Belize, to 15N82W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward from 80W westward. Moderate seas are from 16N northward from 80W westward. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 19N northward to Cuba, between SE Cuba and 82W. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 16N northward from the Windward Passage westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 03/0000 UTC, are: 2.90 in Guadeloupe, and 0.09 in Curacao. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The pressure gradient between a strong high pressure ridge N of the area and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage the remainder of the weekend. A broad area of low pressure is over the southwestern Caribbean. Gradual development of this system is still expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, active showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the western and central Caribbean associated with the area of low pressure. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT and the GREATER ANTILLES HEAVY RAINFALL event. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 02N southward between 38W and 42W. Fresh to strong NW winds are from 28N northward within 700 nm to the west of the cold front. Fresh to strong SW winds are within 120 nm to the east of the cold front from 29N northward. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A broad high pressure ridge extends across the western Atlantic along about 33N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and an old frontal zone lingering along 20N will support strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic S of 25N, from 55W through the Straits of Florida over the next few days, gradually shifting westward through Mon, then expanding across the NW zones Mon night and Tue as new high pressure builds southward into the region. Peak seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Tue, then will subside into the middle of next week. Very active weather should be expected across these waters E of 70W through Sun. $$ mt/al