000 AXNT20 KNHC 030911 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. There is a HIGH chance for tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the central and western Caribbean, as well as portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. Atlantic Significant Swell: Strong to near-gale force E winds continue from 20N to 26N between 60W and 75W. Seas are 12-15 ft in this area, in primary E swell. The band of strong E winds will expand westward toward the Bahamas today and then shift northward toward 30N early next week, with peak seas decreasing to 12-13 ft east of the Bahamas. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Greater Antilles Heavy Rainfall: A trough of low pressure just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By early this week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97). Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. This may lead to flash flooding and potential landslides across these islands through the weekend. Please refer to information from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 45W/46W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 41W and 48W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near the Guinea and Sierra Leone border to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 05N27W to 10N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 10W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge extends across the SE U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough across southern Mexico and the northern portion of Central America is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail across most of the Gulf region through Mon. Fresh to strong E winds will develop in the Straits of Florida late tonight, and continue through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh SE winds across the northwestern part of the basin will strengthen tonight into early this week as a cold front slowly approaches E Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on AL97. the pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge N of the area and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are elsewhere over the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are SE of AL97, where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward passage will continue through tonight. A broad area of low pressure is over the southwestern Caribbean. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, active showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the western and central Caribbean associated with the area of low pressure. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT and GREATER ANTILLES HEAVY RAINFALL. A broad high pressure ridge extends across the western Atlantic along about 33N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and an old frontal zone lingering along 20N is supporting strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic S of 26N, from 55W to the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 7-10 ft are N of 26N and W of 55W. Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N18W to 22N30W. moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are N of 27N within 90 nm east of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are N of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over much of the remainder of the discussion waters. Northerly swell is moving across the waters between 26W and 55W, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic will prevail over the next few days, gradually shifting westward through Mon, then expanding across the NW zones Mon night and Tue as new high pressure builds southward into the region. Peak seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through Tue, then will subside into the middle of next week. Very active weather should be expected across these waters E of 70W through Sun. $$ AL